Thursday is something of an unofficial national holiday, with March Madness tipping off in full at 12:15 p.m. Eastern and a full slate of college hoops to follow through Sunday.
Whether you’re filling out March Madness brackets or looking to cash bets at sportsbooks, identifying the underdogs with the best chance to pull off an early upset is a key factor in handicapping NCAA men’s basketball.
Keep an eye out for odds boosts and other promotions, with BetMGM offering a boost in most markets for moneyline bets on any underdog with odds of +200 or greater.
Popular underdog bets
(13) Yale Yale Bulldogs 7.5 (-118) on BetMGM vs. (4) Texas A&M
After taking down Auburn last year, Yale should draw plenty of action and serve as a popular high seed to pull off a first-round upset. The Bulldogs have won 16 of their last 17 games and might have the best shooter in this game in John Poulakidas. Yale can move the ball enough to exploit the Aggies’ defensive rotations, and the team rebounds well enough to avoid getting crushed on the glass.
(12) Liberty Liberty Flames 7 (-110) on Caesars vs. (5) Oregon
Liberty is a true underdog with a spread of 6.5 points in this matchup in Seattle, where the Ducks should have a sizable advantage in terms of fan support. Oregon might have a size advantage with Nate Bittle down low, but a slow-footed center could further limit the Ducks’ chances to win the 3-point battle against a Liberty squad that has been elite at shooting and defending beyond the arc. Liberty plays at a slow pace and is undefeated when holding opponents below 70 points this season.
(11) Drake Drake Bulldogs 5.5 (-109) on BetRivers vs. (6) Missouri
Missouri limped into the tournament with a 2-5 record down the stretch and finished with some rough defensive numbers at all three levels. Drake is a defensive-minded team that will likely avoid a shootout with Missouri, a team that has struggled down the stretch in close games. Bennett Stirtz is an elite scorer for Drake, and Missouri has a long track record of early exits in the tournament.
Most likely upsets based on odds
(12) Colorado State Colorado State Rams -1 (-110) on BetRivers vs. (5) Memphis
The Buffaloes are actually favored in this matchup, so Memphis could present some value as a higher seed to pull off an upset according to the moneyline. The spread has a lot to do with the potential absence of Memphis point guard Tyrese Hunter (foot), but PJ Haggerty could pick up the slack as he comes off a few high-scoring games in the American Athletic Conference tournament. Memphis has yet to win a tournament game under head coach Penny Hardaway.
(12) UC San Diego UC San Diego Tritons 2.5 (-110) on BetRivers vs. (5) Michigan
The San Diego Tritons (+2.5) are only slight underdogs in this matchup and are drawing heavy action to pull off the upset due to their superior turnover margin this season compared to the Wolverines. Michigan just played three games in three days to win the Big Ten Tournament and could be due for a letdown on short rest against an unfamiliar opponent. The Tritons have an experienced starting five and have won 15 straight games coming into the Big Dance.
(11) VCU Virginia Commonwealth Rams 3 (-115) on Caesars vs. (6) BYU
A familiar Cinderella story in the NCAA Tournament, VCU is looking for another win as a double-digit seed. This version of the Rams is absolutely elite defensively, especially when it comes to limiting assisted field goals, and BYU just got steamrolled, 74-54, by a more talented Houston team that also forces opponents to score in isolation. Max Shulga is a legitimate NBA prospect who can provide enough offense for VCU to pull off the upset.
History of underdogs winning in the first round
| Year | First round upsets | Highest seeded upset |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | 14 |
| 2023 | 7 | 16 |
| 2022 | 10 | 15 |
| 2021 | 10 | 15 |
| 2020 | 12 | 13 |
| 2019 | 9 | 16 |
