New kickoff rules are expected to shake up NFL betting this season as oddsmakers prepare for more returns and better average starting field position.
A lofty 77% of kickoffs resulted in touchbacks last season, prompting a rule change certain to affect NFL betting. Touchbacks will now be spotted at the 30-yard line instead of the 25, drawing from the XFL, which averaged 8.5 returns per game last season compared to the NFL’s 2.2, per CBS Sports. Other changes include the following:
- Landing zone between the goal line and 20-yard line
- New penalties
- Requiring teams to notify officials of onside kicks
- Adjustments to player alignment on both teams
Oddsmakers, however, are squarely focused on having more balls in play and a shorter field for the offense.
“The biggest adjustment we’re expecting to see from the new kickoff rule is how it might impact scoring, especially early in the season,” said Christian Cipollini, a trading manager at BetMGM. “Depending on the strategies coaches employ, we could see shifts in the totals, over/under lines, especially in games with teams known for aggressive special teams play.”
Impact on NFL betting markets
The average opening total for Week 1 games is 44.5 at DraftKings, a half-point higher than last year. However, traders emphasize that their approach remains cautious and observational.
Johnny Avello, DraftKings director of race & sportsbook operations, noted that totals could rise as much as one or two full points throughout the season. If scoring does increase, that could impact other betting markets, as well.
“It could lead to more conservative offensive play, which will be something we keep an eye on for in-game betting adjustments,” Avello said. “But we also may see a slight increase in scoring opportunities, which could impact touchdown props and other scoring-based bets.”
Change births new NFL betting market
Just three teams scored touchdowns on kickoffs last year. Anticipating a reversal of that trend, or people betting on it at least, FanDuel is offering a new market on which team will finish the regular season with the most kickoffs returned for a touchdown.
FanDuel expects it to be one of the sportsbook’s more popular new markets this year, especially ahead of the Week 1 slate.
What to make from preseason
Early results from the preseason offer a glimpse into the change.
According to the NFL, kickoffs in the preseason featured a 70.5% return rate, up 15.7% from last year. The average drive started at the 28.8-yard line, up 4.4 yards from last year.
However, traders are taking exhibition results with a grain of salt.
“The theory is that coaches aren’t trying to show anything in preseason. So we really don’t know from seeing the preseason games,” said Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading at Caesars. “We’re going to take it week by week. We’re not going to overreact in the beginning, but we’re going to try to make sure we adapt correctly once we see it happen.”
Takeaways from past rule changes
Last year’s first down rule change in college football prompted similar betting speculation. With the game clock no longer stopping after a first down, many anticipated a scoring drop-off, according to Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars.
The adjustment led to quicker games, but the anticipated shift in scoring trends did not materialize in the betting markets, Feazel said.
“Everybody said, ‘Oh, there’s going to be a big trend to the under,’ but that never came,” Feazel said. “So making sure you’re not overreacting is just as important in the calculus as reacting is. It’s about reacting once you see a trend going a certain way and not being slow on top of that.”
