President Donald Trump publicly backed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s authority over prediction markets in a post on Truth Social, escalating an increasingly political fight over the booming industry.
In Tuesday‘s post, Trump called it “critically important” that the CFTC maintain “exclusive authority” over prediction markets and that they thrive. He also praised CFTC Chairman Mike Selig while attacking Democratic officials who have pushed to restrict or ban the products.
His post came days after a New York Times investigation detailing how the prediction markets and crypto industries gained influence within the agency during the Trump administration, including staff reductions and favorable policy reversals. Rep. James Comer (R-KY) also launched an investigation into insider trading on Kalshi and Polymarket last week.
Trump backs agency suing states
The CFTC has sued six states attempting to restrict sports event contracts and other prediction market products — Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Minnesota, New York and Wisconsin, — arguing that federal commodities law preempts state gambling enforcement against federally regulated exchanges.
Minnesota earlier this month passed a law making the operation or advertising of certain prediction markets a felony under state law. Arizona Atty. Gen. Kris Mayes separately filed a 20-count criminal case against Kalshi in March before it was blocked by a federal judge.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker signed an executive order earlier this year to prevent state employees from using nonpublic information to profit from prediction markets. New York Atty. Gen. Letitia James is involved in litigation against prediction markets, while former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has emerged as a prominent public critic of the industry while working alongside the American Gaming Association.
Nearly a dozen other states have taken actions against prediction markets, ranging from cease-and-desist orders to lawsuits and legislative bans.
Trump shifts prediction market posture
Trump’s comments appeared notably more supportive than remarks he made earlier this year when asked about betting tied to military and geopolitical events.
“You know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino,” Trump told reporters in April. “I was never much in favor of it. I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is now.”
During the same exchange, Trump downplayed criminal charges filed against U.S. Special Forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who is accused by the Justice Department of using advance knowledge related to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to win nearly $400,000 on Polymarket contracts.
The CFTC has acknowledged insider trading and market manipulation concerns in an ongoing rulemaking process examining prediction markets, specifically asking for comment on insider information risks and contracts involving war, assassination, and other sensitive events.
Sports leagues have also raised integrity concerns around sports event contracts, including requests from the NCAA and NFL for stricter safeguards around potentially manipulable or insider-sensitive markets.
Trump ties to prediction markets
Truth Social has its own prediction market partnership with Crypto.com, one of several operators being sued by states. Trump Media had indicated plans to launch its own fully controlled prediction market on the social media platform, though it has scaled back those plans according to recent reports.
Donald Trump Jr. became an adviser to Kalshi a week before Trump took office and shortly before the company first began offering sports contracts. Trump Jr. also became an adviser of Polymarket last August when venture capital firm 1789 Capital, where he is a partner, invested in the company.
The platform’s trading volume had increased more than 1,000% since then, with sports contracts accounting for roughly 87% of total activity.
