Sportradar cut its full-year guidance this week, prompting Wall Street analysts to lower estimates while largely preserving their longer-term view of the company’s prediction market opportunity.
Sportradar now expects revenue of €1.518 billion to €1.533 billion this year and full-year adjusted EBITDA of €360 million to €368 million, down from prior guidance ranges of €1.557 billion to €1.582 billion in revenue and €390 million to €400 million in adjusted EBITDA. The reduced outlook came despite another quarter of double-digit revenue growth, as management pointed to moderating U.S. online sportsbook growth, slower-than-expected commercialization of prediction market partnerships and foreign exchange headwinds.
Wall Street largely viewed it as a timing issue. Truist, Citizens and Macquarie each lowered their 2026 and 2027 earnings forecasts while maintaining positive ratings, arguing the delayed rollout of prediction market partnerships has only pushed back revenue.
Shares of Sportradar fell 15% Monday after the guidance cut, closing at $12.34 on roughly four times average daily trading volume. Shares are down about 58% over the past year.
Prediction market ramp shifts to 2027
The company signed multi-year agreements during the quarter with Kalshi and Polymarket to provide official data, streaming, odds, integrity and customer acquisition services.
“The challenge is, that the prediction market deals having got some time to come to completion,” CFO Craig Felenstein said.
Sportradar expects prediction markets to generate “upside … in the tens of millions” of euros this year, with revenue becoming “significantly higher” in 2027 as those agreements contribute for a full year, CEO Carsten Koerl said.
Pushing revenue into 2027 could ultimately support additional margin expansion as Sportradar can layer prediction market revenue onto its existing infrastructure with little incremental cost, Citizens analyst Jordan Bender wrote in a financial note. Macquarie’s Chad Beynon likewise argued the longer-term opportunity extends beyond exchanges as Sportradar expands relationships with brokers and market makers as well.
Truist’s Barry Jonas, meanwhile, said the biggest unanswered question is whether prediction markets are beginning to cannibalize regulated sportsbook activity.
Sportradar cites softer betting growth
Despite the lower outlook, Sportradar reported second-quarter revenue rose 19% year over year to €378 million while adjusted EBITDA increased 19% to €76 million. Betting & Gaming Content revenue climbed 27% on continued monetization of the IMG Arena acquisition, while Marketing & Media Services revenue increased 16% from accelerated affiliate marketing demand.
Management said sportsbook operators continue to report “very limited cannibalization” from prediction markets, but acknowledged moderating U.S. sportsbook growth contributed to the guidance cut even as the World Cup left overall U.S. growth largely flat during the quarter.
Koerl attributed much of the slowdown to the lack of new state launches, saying, “We are continuing to see moderation in the U.S. market growth given no significant state openings and the growth in prediction markets.” After more than a dozen commercial sportsbooks launched between 2021 and 2024, Missouri was the only legal sports betting market to open in 2025.
Macquarie’s Chad Beynon downplayed the slowdown’s impact, noting roughly 70% of Sportradar’s revenue comes from international markets, where contracts are predominantly fixed fee with built-in escalators and demand remains healthy.
Analysts bullish on Sportradar buybacks
While analysts lowered forecasts across 2026 and beyond, all three firms said Sportradar’s valuation remains attractive following the stock’s sharp decline.
Truist lowered its price target to $16 from $18 while maintaining a Buy rating. Citizens reduced its target to $20 from $24 while reiterating market outperform, and Macquarie also lowered its target to $20 from $24, saying it sees “few cracks in this critical sports data business.”
Analysts also pointed to Sportradar’s aggressive share repurchase program as a key source of support. The company repurchased $140 million of stock during the second quarter and $311 million so far this year, with management saying it expects to complete its enhanced $250 million buyback program “in the coming weeks”.
Citizens noted the stock now trades at roughly seven times its 2027 EBITDA estimate, well below its historical valuation, while Truist said a recovery depends more on how quickly prediction market revenue ramps and whether growth in the regulated U.S. sportsbook market improves.
