NFL betting patterns are beginning to emerge four weeks into the season, with rising handle, volatile results and surging prediction market activity among the early trends.
U.S. and Canada real-money gaming apps generated 2.1 million downloads during Week 4, up 24% from a year ago, according to Sensor Tower data compiled by Citizens JMP Securities. Downloads are up 22% through the first four weeks of NFL betting.
Kalshi led all operators for the fourth consecutive week, accounting for 32% of Week 4 downloads. DraftKings finished second with 12%, followed by Polymarket at 11% and FanDuel at 8%.
Overall gaming-app download increased by double digits in each of the first four weeks of the season even as established sportsbook and fantasy operators largely posted year-over-year declines. The comparison favors newer prediction market apps, which have a much larger pool of potential first-time downloads than sportsbooks that have spent years establishing customer bases.
New York handle rises, results swing
Early state data shows sports betting activity increasing as the NFL schedule fills out, even as customer results swing sharply from week to week.
New York sportsbook handle increased from $483.3 million in the first week of September to $594.6 million and $611.1 million over the following two weeks, before falling slightly to $573.4 million in the week ending Sept. 27, according to New York State Gaming Commission data.
Revenue followed a much less predictable path. Sportsbooks held about 9.3% of wagers in the week ending Sept. 6 before hold plunged to 2.9% the following week, rebounded to 6.3% the week after that and then kept rising to 8.5% in the last week of September.
Notably the NFL season started later on the calendar this year, leaving 48 regular-season games in the 2026 September reporting window compared with 62 during the corresponding 2025 period.
Prediction market volume hits record
Prediction markets generated a record $89 billion in notional volume over the past 30 days, according to Citizens and Aldrin Research. Notional volume is not directly comparable with sportsbook handle because it measures contracts traded rather than conventional wagers.
Despite the influx of competitors, Kalshi still accounts for 55.2% of sports-only notional volume over the past 30 days, down from 61.3% in August. Polymarket ranks second at 28.3%.
DraftKings’ DKeX has climbed from 0.3% of sports volume in August to 3.1%, one of the more significant share gains among newer competitors.
Kalshi remains much more dominant when it comes to parlay-style combo contracts, accounting for 82.9% of combo notional volume over the past 30 days. Polymarket ranks second at 9.7%, followed by DKeX at 3%.
NFL betting skews against pulbic
Favorites are 28-34-2 against the spread through Week 4, and teams receiving at least 50% of bets are just 25-36-2 ATS, including 2-10 in primetime games, according to data from Bet Labs.
Week 4 continued that trend as New England upset Buffalo 29-26 as a seven-point underdog after the Bills entered the weekend as BetMGM‘s most-bet side by both tickets and money. Carolina’s upset of Detroit and Dallas’ win over Houston were also favorable results for BetMGM.
Totals have been much more balanced, with overs and unders tied 32-32 through four weeks.
Those traditional markets have become a less complete barometer of sportsbook performance as customers increasingly shift toward higher-margin wagers. Eilers & Krejcik Gaming projected before the season that parlays would account for more than 40% of NFL betting handle and as much as 75% of sportsbook revenue.
