Sports predictions continue to loom large in gaming industry discussions entering 2026, even as new data suggests their real-world impact on regulated sportsbooks remains narrow.
In his 2026 U.S. Gaming Sector Outlook, Barry Jonas of Truist notes that while legal uncertainty around sports event contracts persists, investor concern has already spread across much of the public gaming universe. Nearly every company with a meaningful digital footprint has faced questions tied to the perceived threat of prediction markets, regardless of whether those platforms are meaningfully overlapping with core US sports betting customers.
“Most companies in our coverage with any digital angle have seen some negative impact that could be somehow tied to prediction markets and their potential disruptive threat,” Jonas said.
Sportsbooks still dominate activity
Consumer betting data from Juice Reel, a bet-tracking and analytics platform, suggests regulated sportsbooks remain the primary destination for sports wagering activity.
Among Juice Reel users:
- Regulated sportsbooks account for 38% of handle and 70% of total bets
- Prediction markets represent 13% of handle and just 1% of bets
- Offshore, bookie and sweepstakes products continue to capture meaningful share
Juice Reel has tracked more than $3.7 billion in synced handle, 65 million bets, and roughly 63,000 bettors since January 2024. Jonas pointed to it as a viable proxy for how bettors split activity across wagering options.
Sports predictions skew toward bigger bettors in non betting states
Juice Reel data indicates prediction market usage is concentrated among VIP and high-dollar bettors, a pattern also seen with offshore books and traditional bookmakers. In each case, handle share significantly exceeds bet count share, signaling larger average wager sized placed by a smaller group of bettors.
That distinction matters for sportsbook economics. Regulated sportsbooks typically generate the majority of profits from recreational bettors, while sharper players are often limited or restricted. Jonas notes that prediction market participants appear more sophisticated, making them less representative of the mass-market sports betting customer.
Prediction markets also show the highest engagement in states without legal online sports betting, led by California at roughly 9% of Juice Reel users and Texas at about 6%. In states where regulated sportsbooks are live, prediction market usage generally falls between 1% and 5%.
HoldCrunch data suggests college concentration risk
Jonas also cited analysis from HoldCrunch, which tracks “OSB-equivalent handle” on prediction markets rather than raw trading volume, as a way to better compare their activity with sportsbooks. Jonas pointed to the metric as increasingly important amid the rise of parlay-style combo contracts that have inflated volume and obscured how demand is measured.
Using that framework, Jonas pointed to a high degree of concentration in prediction market sports activity, particularly around college football relative to professional sports.
- For the week ending Jan. 4, college football accounted for 32% of Kalshi’s OSB-equivalent sports handle, compared with 24% for the NFL and 22% for the NBA
- College football over-indexed throughout October, November and December, according to HoldCrunch
- At regulated sportsbooks, NFL straight bets generate roughly four times the handle of college football, compared with closer to 1.2x on Kalshi
Jonas said the skew toward college football highlights the reliance of prediction markets on calendar-driven events. HoldCrunch expects similar spikes during March Madness, setting up the post-tournament period as a key test for sustained engagement.
Sports predictions threat remains
Jonas said the emergence of prediction markets has not meaningfully reduced overall wagering, with total bettor wallet activity remaining stable despite some reallocation of spend.
Prediction markets are influencing bettor behavior “largely but not entirely [among] players not eligible for legal state regulated OSB,” he added.
Still, Jonas said the disconnect between perception and data may persist as regulatory framework for sports event contracts remains unsettled, leaving investors to price in disruption risk before its economic impact is fully understood. Until clearer federal or state guidance emerges, the firm expects prediction markets to remain a recurring overhang for gaming stocks.
