NFL betting growth is expected to grind to a halt this season for the first time since legal sportsbooks began spreading across the country.
The American Gaming Association projects $29.5 billion in legal NFL sports betting handle, virtually unchanged from $29.4 billion last season.
The expected plateau comes as competition for those dollars intensifies during the industry’s most important stretch of the year. The state-by-state expansion that fueled years of sportsbook growth is nearly exhausted, prediction markets now offer sports contracts nationwide, and the biggest operators are spending more and changing how they compete for customers under growing pressure from Wall Street.
“We’re excited for the NFL season to kickoff, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams,” AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said. “Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting had seen tremendous growth.
“But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled.”
NFL betting moves to prediction markets
Roughly 60% to 65% of annual U.S. commercial sportsbook handle comes during the combined NFL and college football seasons, making the next several months the industry’s most important period for acquiring customers and generating revenue.
The 2026-27 football season marks the second year in a row since the 2018 repeal of PASPA that no state will enter its first NFL season with legal sports betting, though this will be Missouri‘s first full NFL betting season after launching last December. Meanwhile, competition from nationwide sports trading on Kalshi and Polymarket is surging, while DraftKings and FanDuel expand their own prediction markets.
Kalshi recorded $41 billion in notional volume in July, up more than 5,400% from a year earlier, with sports accounting for 82.2% of trading. The first full Saturday of college football helped drive a record $2.3 billion in trading, Kalshi’s busiest day ever, and just seven days in, September already ranks as the platform’s seven largest month ever by volume.
Prediction markets add more nfl betting than they take?
Citizens expects prediction markets to generate more than $400 billion in notional volume between the start of football season and the Super Bowl.
But Citizens analyst Jordan Bender found signs that cannibalization from prediction markets may be easing. Customers who used both increased their sportsbook wallet size by 27% on average in the six months after adopting prediction markets, while just 4% of onshore sportsbook handle has migrated entirely to exchanges.
Citizens expects sportsbook handle to potentially fall 10% to 15% in September, in part because the NFL schedule has 16 fewer games, before growth accelerates in the fourth quarter as operators lap the initial surge in prediction-market adoption from late 2025.
For the full season, the firm projects a record $35 billion in football-related sportsbook handle, up 5% from last year, including 2% same-state growth. The broader measure differs from the AGA’s NFL-only estimate.
NFL bettors split activity across apps
NFL bettors are expected to spread their activity across more platforms, according to an Optimove Insights survey of 926 U.S. adults who wagered on the NFL last season.
It found 64% expect to use at least two sportsbooks this season and 16% expect to use three or more. Prediction markets are increasingly part of that mix, with 84% of bettors surveyed having heard of them and 60% planning to trade event contracts this year.
Product could help determine where that activity goes. Ease of use was the top factor in choosing a sportsbook at 59%, ahead of payouts at 43% and promotions at 31%, while 47% cited a difficult app or website as a reason to leave.
Sportsbooks spend more, add features
Sportsbooks, meanwhile are treating the season differently than in years past.
Flutter’s U.S. sales and marketing expenses jumped 61% year over year to $353 million heading into football season, while FanDuel promotional spending rose to 5.4% of sportsbook volume from 4%. FanDuel acknowledged its promotional strategy contributed to market-share losses last season.
DraftKings plans to invest another $200 million to $300 million in prediction markets this year, much of it in the second half. It has combined sportsbook, predictions and other products in the same app and launched Crown Cash rewards across its offerings.
Fanatics has taken a similar approach, combining sportsbook and prediction markets in one app, with FanCash linking both to its broader sports business. It is also expanding Fair Play after injury protection saved nearly 200,000 NFL bets last season, extending automatic protection through the first half this year.
BetMGM cannot participate in predictions because of Nevada‘s stance that it is illegal gambling and is instead leaning further into its existing gambling ecosystem. Its football upgrades include expanded live same-game parlays and cash-out, probability-based odds displays and a new Rewards Hub connecting its online products with MGM Resorts benefits.
