DraftKings shares extended their gains Wednesday after the company reported growing prediction market volume.
Shares of DraftKings closed at $28.79, up 16.2% from Monday’s close before the company released its May volume report. That report, along with positive response from CEO Jason Robins on LinkedIn, helped send shares up 11.3% Tuesday.
Robins also appeared at the Nasdaq Investor Conference with Jefferies on Wednesday, before the market opened. The roughly 30-minute discussion focused largely on prediction markets, though Robins hit familiar talkings points regarding long-term growth opportunities in both sports betting and online casino as well.
The market reaction benefited DraftKings’ top opponent, Flutter‘s FanDuel, too, as did the CFTC’s proposed regulations on prediction markets released Wednesday. Flutter’s stock closed Wednesday at $112.94, up 14.1% from Monday’s open. Flutter’s rally began Monday because of the report from Front Office Sports about hundreds of layoffs at FanDuel.
Putting DraftKings volume in context
DraftKings notified shareholders of the short filing around 7 a.m. Tuesday morning:
“On June 9, 2026, DraftKings Inc. (the “Company”) announced that in May 2026, annualized consumer volume in the Company’s Predictions offering increased 24% month-over-month to $1.3 billion and annualized total volume traded increased 34% month-over-month to $3.1 billion, in each case as compared to April 2026.
“These operating metrics are preliminary, unaudited and based on currently available internal data, and are subject to adjustment.”
Still more than a few steps behind Kalshi
That $3.`1 billion annualized total volume, or ~$260 million per month, is a pretty far cry from incumbent names like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi hit $17.9 billion in just the month of May alone, according to LSR Data Analyst Eric Ramsey. The gap between Polymarket and Kalshi is significant, but so is the gap between Polymarket and DraftKings. Polymarket’s U.S. platform had nearly $1.8 billion in monthly volume in May.
Robins said DraftKings’ predictions product is almost at parity with competitors and should be the best on the market by NFL season.
Robins: predictions not hurting revenue
Moderator and Jefferies analyst James Whitcroft mentioned sports betting handle declining because of predictions markets, but Robins was quick to correct.
Handle is just one metric to be used in context of other metrics, Robins explained. He pointed to DraftKings’ Q1 results, where handle grew just 1.5% but net sports betting revenue jumped 24%.
That trend continued into April with revenue up 30% while handle grew 6%, he added.
“I do think that we have looked at enough data that I feel pretty confident we are not seeing any material cannibalization on the revenue front from predictions, Robins said. “We’ve looked at all sorts of different data, we feel very confident that it is true as of today, at least.”
Handle, on the other hand…
Robins gave two reasons why handle is down: sportsbooks beating customers and institutional betting shifting to prediction markets.
“The industry, and us, in particular, have been significantly improving our net win margins by increasing hold and getting more efficient with promotions,” Robins said.
As for institutional and professional bettors, predictions is the product that allows them to “do what they’re trying to do” easier than sports betting.
“Where I do think we are seeing some cannibalization in on the handle front, particularly from professional bettors and institutional bettors that are now concentrating a lot of their efforts on market making on prediction markets, Robins said. “That handle is generally low or even negative margin handle, which is why it’s not really impacting revenue in any meaningful way.
That said, Robins noted the company’s excitement over the World Cup, saying he thinks it should be a big event despite not having much data to support that: “I think a lot of people are going to pay attention and follow more because they have something riding on the game.”
Save the novice traders
While prediction markets offer ideal conditions for pros and institutional bettors, there needs to be someone looking out for the little guys, Robins said.
“Now, of course in predictions, you’ve gotta be careful about that because you don’t want these professional bettors feasting on all the casual customers. So that’s something that, in predictions specifically in our product and also the rest of the industry, we’re going to have to figure out how to manage that eco system.”
Prediction markets clarity by early 2028?
The Supreme Court taking up the prediction markets issue is the “most likely scenario” Robins has heard. Lawsuits filed by both sides of the issue are in courts across the country.
A ruling should come by late 2027 or early 2028, he added.
“At that point, we’ll have some level of clarity, at least, from the court system. After that it’s sort of pending on the ruling, I guess.”
Robins “absolutely” thinks a positive Supreme Court ruling for prediction markets will move holdout states to legalize sports betting. There has already been a change in the conversations happening in the states without legal sportsbooks, he added.
