Genius Sports highlighted prediction markets as a new growth driver Thursday while raising its profitability outlook following its $1.2 billion acquisition of Legend.
The sports and betting technology company reported first quarter revenue of $188 million, up 31% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA rose 21% to $24 million. Betting technology, content and services revenue climbed 33% to $146 million.
Genius raised its 2026 guidance after closing its purchase of Legend, which operates an online casino and sports betting affiliate network. It now forecasts between $270 million and $280 million in adjusted EBITDA on as much as $1.01 billion in revenue.
Shares of GENI closed at $4.78 Thursday, up 8.6% from Wednesday‘s close on nearly three times its average daily trading volume.
Legend deal reshapes outlook
The deal sent shares down nearly 28% in February amid investor concerns around valuation and increased exposure to media and affiliate revenue.
On Thursday’s earnings call, executives repeatedly framed the acquisition as immediately accretive to margins, cash flow and long-term growth.
“This raises our 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin expectation from 23% to 28%,” CFO Bryan Castellani said. “The acquisition is immediately margin accretive and accelerates our path to our previously stated long-term revenue and margin targets by two years.”
Genius Sports adds prediction markets
The emerging category became a central theme throughout the call as executives framed prediction markets as a potentially significant new customer acquisition and infrastructure market for Genius.
CEO Mark Locke said Genius expects the sector to drive incremental data revenue and advertising demand as operators ramp spending. He also pointed to growing engagement between leagues, prediction market platforms and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as the regulatory framework evolves.
Genius onboarded several market makers during the quarter using its low-latency data feeds. Locke suggested the company sees long-term economics similar to major sportsbook operators.
“We are applying the same proven model in the U.S. online sports betting market to a new category,” Locke said. “We think of each of the major prediction markets being like one of the top U.S. sportsbooks.”
Genius Sports expands AI push
Executives also pointed to early traction from the company’s AI-driven “Moment Engine” advertising platform, which uses live sports moments and audience data to target ads in real time.
Genius said the platform is now integrated with partners representing roughly 90% of the programmatic advertising ecosystem.
Locke said nearly 70 advertisers signed on following the company’s NewFront presentation in New York as Genius expands its real-time sports advertising products.
