Kalshi, the prediction market exchange leading the dive into sports event contracts, could soon offer NFL betting props on a scale closer to that of licensed sportsbooks.
Kalshi, according to a recent filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) first reported by The Event Horizon newsletter, plans to expand its NFL markets from spreads, moneylines, totals, and touchdown props to a much wider menu of player-based stat props.
That would bring markets matching some of the most popular props to states where sportsbooks remain illegal, like California and Texas. Customers in all 50 states could soon trade contracts on things like the total number of completions Patrick Mahomes throws or whether a kicker makes his next attempt, bets otherwise limited to licensed sportsbooks.
Kalshi lists more NFL props
Under the self-certified contracts, Kalshi could list wagers on popular categories:
- Passing: completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, interceptions
- Rushing: attempts, yards, touchdowns
- Receiving: receptions, yards, touchdowns
- Combined: yards from scrimmage, total touchdowns
- Defensive: tackles, sacks, interceptions, passes defended
- Special teams / returns: field goals and extra points (made or attempted), punts, punt yards, return touchdowns
The contracts also allow Kalshi to break out props by time period, like full game, halves, quarters, or other custom intervals.
States unable to restrict Kalshi
Because these are self-certified event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, Kalshi does not need pre-approval from the CFTC before listing them. The Commission can object or open a public-interest review, but absent that, contracts go live automatically.
Whether states can prevent Kalshi and other exchanges from offering sports predictions is under the consideration of multiple courts.
Massachusetts regulators joined several other states in suing Kalshi earlier this month, alleging it is operating as an unlicensed sportsbook under state law. Other states have issued cease-and-desist letters or signaled enforcement action. Courts, however have mostly allowed to Kalshi to keep their markets up as litigation plays out.
The CFTC has in the past blocked election-related markets, but has so far declined to weigh in on sports-related ones, despite pleas from major sports leagues, lawmakers and states.
Kalshi’s NFL push
Kalshi first offered sports contracts ahead of last year’s Super Bowl, starting with simple yes/no and moneyline markets. This NFL season marks the first time it has listed spreads, totals, and moneylines for every game, as well as player touchdown props.
Adoption has been modest for touchdown props compared with Kalshi’s moneyline markets, but a push toward more sportsbook-style prop betting could boost interest. Kalshi says it has already facilitated more than $2 billion in sports trading volume this year.
That surge has coincided with other platforms making moves, including Underdog and Crypto.com expanding into prediction markets, and Polymarket taking steps toward re-entering the U.S.
Sleeper is also fighting for a foothold, recently sending a letter to the Office of Inspector General accusing the CFTC of “abuse and mismanagement” for refusing to grant it futures commission merchant registration, which would allow it to partner with exchanges like Kalshi to offer sports contracts.
