Super Wild Card Weekend whittled the field of 14 playoff teams down to eight, leaving us poised for an exciting divisional round.
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Divisional round odds: Spreads, moneylines, totals
NFL divisional round opening spreads, lines, totals
Game Spread Moneyline Total
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs -7.5 Texans +375
Chiefs -41042.5
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions Lions -9 Commanders +420
Lions -55055.5
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles Eagles -6 Rams +230
Eagles -26543.5
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Ravens -1 Ravens -113
Bills +10051.5
NFL divisional round game odds and analysis
Houston Texans (+7.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
The Texans waylaid an unsuspecting Chargers team in the wild card round by a 32-12 score on Saturday, with C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon and Nico Collins looking very much like a formidable Big Three and the defense completely flummoxing Justin Herbert into more interceptions (four) than he’d thrown all season (three). Stroud’s 282-yard performance was an especially welcome sight considering how poor the passing game had looked since losing both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to season-ending injuries, but the matchup arguably gets even tougher in this spot versus a savvy, experienced Chiefs defense that excels at taking the ball away.
Many of the Chiefs’ frontline players enjoyed another week of rest, which gave Patrick Mahomes and several other key players time to heal up from some late-season nagging injuries. Kansas City handed Houston a 27-19 loss in Week 16 in its penultimate step to eventually claiming the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and this time, it’ll enjoy a significant rest advantage in addition to a likely boost in intensity thanks to the postseason environment.
The Texans are 2-2 ATS as road underdogs this season and 0-1-1 against the number when playing with a rest disadvantage. The Chiefs are 3-5 versus the number as home favorites, 2-3 ATS when playing with a rest advantage and had that aforementioned eight-point win over the Texans earlier in the season.
The game has opened with an over/under of 41.5 points.
Washington Commanders (+8.5) at Detroit Lions (-8.5)
Jayden Daniels and company did it yet again Sunday night, exceeding expectations with a 23-20 win over the Buccaneers in a road wild-card matchup. Daniels didn’t display any evident nerves in his first NFL postseason game, throwing for 268 yards and two touchdowns. The defense was also mostly stout against a Bucs offense that had been downright dangerous at times this season, good preparation for this week’s test against a Lions squad that’s now primed to get David Montgomery back from his knee injury.
If the veteran running back’s return does come to pass, Detroit’s already highly potent offense, one that averaged an NFL-high 35.3 points and 421.8 yards per home game, will become even more dangerous than it was already proving to be without Montgomery over the final three games of the regular season. Meanwhile, the injury-ravaged defense will have gotten some much-needed rest over the bye week, leaving them primed for the challenge Daniels brings.
The Commanders are 3-2-1 ATS as a road underdog and 2-1 against the number when playing with a rest disadvantage. The Lions are 5-4 ATS as a home favorite and 2-1 versus the spread with an ATS +/- of +12.2 points when playing with a rest edge.
The game has opened with an over/under of 55.5 points.
Los Angeles Rams (+6) at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Just as they did throughout the stretch run of the regular season, the Rams exceeded expectations again in Monday night’s wild-card win over the Vikings. Los Angeles’ defense played at an elite level in the 27-9 victory on the neutral field of State Farm Stadium, sacking Sam Darnold nine times while neutralizing the Justin Jefferson-Jordan Addison duo to the tune of a combined 8-87 line. With Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams doing their share on offense, the balanced team effort underscored how dangerous Los Angeles has become in any matchup.
The Eagles had a solid wild-card victory in their own right, disposing of Jordan Love and the Packers by a 22-10 score on Sunday afternoon. Jalen Hurts and his air attack once again took a back seat to Saquon Barkley and the defense, as the former compiled 119 rushing yards and could have had more had he not opted to give himself up on a late breakaway run, and the latter sacked Love twice while recording three interceptions. The Eagles recorded a convincing 37-20 win over the Rams in Los Angeles back in Week 12.
The Rams are 1-2 ATS as a road underdog but notably 3-1 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage. The Eagles are 5-4 against the spread as a home favorite and 2-2 versus the number when playing with a rest advantage. Philadelphia also boasts the aforementioned 17-point victory over Los Angeles earlier in the season.
The game has opened with an over/under of 44.5 points.
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills (+1.5)
The Ravens kept rolling in Saturday night’s wild-card home win over the Steelers, disposing of their division rival by a 28-14 score to record their fifth straight win while just missing out on a fourth consecutive 30-point-plus outing. Derrick Henry showed absolutely no signs of slowing down by racking up 186 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Henry also compiled 199 rushing yards and two total scores in Baltimore’s win over Buffalo in Week 4, which helps make the Ravens an intriguing road favorite in this spot.
However, the Bills are a much better team at this juncture than back during that 35-10 loss to Lamar Jackson and Co. Josh Allen went on to build a seemingly airtight MVP case over the course of the regular season, while James Cook proved himself a legitimate lead back by exceeding the 1,000-yard mark and scoring 16 rushing TDs on the season before adding 120 yards and a touchdown against a tough Broncos defense in Sunday’s 31-7 wild-card victory. Amari Cooper is also now part of the receiving corps, and his experience could particularly have an impact in what will likely be a wire-to-wire matchup.
The Ravens are 6-2 ATS as a road favorite and 3-2 ATS when playing with a rest advantage. The Bills did not play any games as a home underdog during the regular season or in last week’s playoff game and are 2-2 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage. As noted earlier, Buffalo did lose by 25 points to the Ravens in Baltimore.
The game has opened with an over/under of 51.5 points.