Alabama Upset Rattles College Football Playoff Futures


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Alabama Upset Plays Significant Role In College Football Playoff Futures

In a tumultuous college football season, the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide befell arguably the biggest upset thus far with a 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday.

The Tide entered the game as a 23.5-point favorite with -2000 odds on the moneyline, as Vanderbilt had lost 60 straight games against top-five ranked opponents.

Alabama was one of five of the top 11 teams in the nation to suffer an upset this past weekend. No. 4 Tennessee lost at Arkansas, No. 9 Missouri lost to Texas A&M, No. 10 Michigan lost at Washington, and No. 11 USC lost at Minnesota.  

While both Alabama (4-1) and Tennessee are still very much in the mix to make the expanded College Football Playoff, these losses will have ripple effects across the college football futures market.

What happened to Alabama’s title odds?

Prior to Week 6, Alabama was tied with Ohio State as the favorite to win the college football title, with odds of around +375 after the Tide had defeated Georgia in Week 5. Alabama is now fourth in odds to win the College Football Playoff at +650, trailing Georgia (+500), Texas (+400), and Ohio State (+350). Tennessee has dropped from +1100 to +1800. 

Alabama (+390) is also behind Texas (+145) in odds to win the SEC. 

In Heisman Trophy odds, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has dropped from the favorite to fourth on the board at +1100, trailing Ashton Jeanty (+225), Travis Hunter (+300), and Cam Ward (+400). 

Is Alabama still likely to make the 12-team playoff?

In terms of making the 12-team field in the new College Football Playoff format, Alabama moved from odds of -350 to the shortest odds in the field at -1200 after beating Georgia. Oddsmakers are still working on a new list to adjust for all the notable upsets. 

Only one member of a 12-member panel of ESPN experts left Alabama out of the 12-team field, although most experts moved the Tide down to the seventh spot in their projections. Austin Mock, of The Athletic, dropped Alabama from 94% to 81% to make the CFP in his predictive model. 

Tennessee sat at -310 and is now down to a 47.7% chance to make the playoff per ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Volunteers do not appear in projections from three of the 12-member panel of ESPN experts, and most of the panelists who did list them had them 10th. 

These losses also potentially opened the door for other teams. Notably, Notre Dame has shifted from 2% to 48.4% to make the playoff, according to the ESPN Football Power Index, after the Irish took down previously undefeated Louisville in Week 5. 

Ole Miss, which had just dropped from 79% to 47% to make the playoff after losing to Kentucky, is now up to 58%, according to The Athletic.  

Photo by Associated Press/George Walker IV