Coming off a win at Nebraska, the No. 19 Illinois Fighting Illini will be looking for another road upset when they face the No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions this Saturday. Kickoff for this Big Ten showdown is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Beaver Stadium, with NBC on the broadcast.
Despite the strong start from Illinois (4-0), college football Week 5 odds have Penn State (3-0) as a favorite of 18 points or greater on the spread with -1000 odds on the moneyline. The total is 48 points. Note that Illinois’ last trip to Beaver Stadium ended with a nine-overtime victory in the longest game in NCAA football history.
Luke Altmyer passed for 215 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Illini past a strong Nebraska defense in Week 4. Pat Bryant was his top target, and the senior has already logged six touchdowns on 20 receptions through four outings this season.
Penn State had trouble dispatching Bowling Green in Week 2, then roared to a 56-0 home win over Kent State after a bye week. The Nittany Lions deployed a conservative offense last year with Drew Allar posting efficient passing numbers while Kaytron Allen led their rushing attack. We also cover a PA sportsbook promo, and IL sportsbook promo for the game.
Illinois vs. Penn State player prop tool
The player prop tool will let you search for and compare odds of player props at various college football betting sites.
Illinois vs. Penn State spread, moneyline, total
Player props for Illinois vs. Penn State
How Drew Allar could get over 215.5 passing yards
As mentioned above, Penn State’s coaching staff employed a conservative approach last year, and Allar only averaged 202.4 passing yards per game at 29.9 attempts per game. Through three starts this year, the junior from Ohio is averaging 243 passing yards on just 19.3 attempts per game. While the competition increases this week, so should the passing volume for Allar, who completed 16 of 33 attempts for 208 yards in a 30-13 win at Illinois last September.
His receiving corps underwent a shakeup this offseason, but Allar has Harrison Wallace III back healthy to go along with Ohio State transfer Julian Fleming. Illinois allowed 297 passing yards last week to talented Nebraska freshman Dylan Raiola, and the Illini defense has faced high passing volume this year since it has been strong against the run.
How Drew Allar could get under 215.5 passing yards
Penn State has two talented backs in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. They are both well rested after a few comfortable wins, and they share work evenly enough to allow the Nittany Lions to run the football very consistently when it’s working. Illinois allowed 150.2 rushing yards per game last season, and the sample size is small this season in terms of their improvement in run defense.
Allar is not guaranteed to see much passing volume if Penn State grabs an early lead, which is why he averaged 207.5 passing yards per game in wins last season. He has had some trouble against Big Ten competition, posting a 56.8% completion rate in conference play last year and averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt against top 25 opponents in 2023.
How Pat Bryant could get over 49.5 receiving yards
Luke Altmyer has been playing well, and he tends to lock onto Bryant in key situations. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound senior has a big body that allowed him to tally 74 receiving yards on five catches against Nebraska’s physical defense last week.
Bryant is averaging 77.3 receiving yards per game through four starts and most of his targets have been quality looks down the field. Altmyer is thriving with improved pass protection this season, and that could give him enough time to let his top target get open. Zakhari Franklin is a good receiver on the other side of the field to keep Penn State’s secondary honest.
How Pat Bryant could get under 49.5 receiving yards
Penn State has an elite, well-coached defense. The Nittany Lions are going to try to take Altmyer’s top target away, and they were able to hold Bryant to 16 yards on one catch in their meeting last season. Iowa’s elite defense also shut down Bryant last November, holding him to just 8 yards on two catches.
The Nittany Lions can shut down the run without investing too many resources toward the line of scrimmage, allowing them to double-team Bryant on the back end. Penn State’s offense is so run-heavy that the clock could be running frequently throughout this game, limiting the passing opportunities for Illinois.
