Victor Wembanyama entered last NBA season as the prohibitive Rookie of the Year favorite with the shortest odds to beat the field and win the award in decades. The No. 1 overall pick by the San Antonio Spurs followed through and won the award without much drama, but the field is wide open ahead of the 2024-25 season.
France’s Zaccharie Risacher and Alexandre Sarr, the top two overall picks by the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards, open as the favorites to win Rookie of the Year, with another Frenchman (Charlotte’s Tidjane Salaun) also in the mix. Below, we break down early Rookie of the Year odds for NBA betting, with a look at the top favorites and a couple of sleepers to consider.
2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year odds
- Alexandre Sarr +350
- Zaccharie Risacher +450
- Stephon Castle +700
- Tidjane Salaun +1200
- Reed Sheppard +1200
- Donovan Clingan +1200
- Dalton Knecth +1200
- Zach Edey +1200
- Cody Williams +1400
- Ronald Holland +1500
- Rob Dillingham +2000
- Matas Buzelis +2000
- Devin Carter +3000
- Jared McCain +4000
- Kel’el Ware +5000
NBA ROY favorites
Sarr, an athletic 7-footer with elite two-way potential, did not go first overall in part because he chose not to work out for Atlanta. Sarr has still opened as the Rookie of the Year favorite at DraftKings (+350), BetMGM (+425), and FanDuel (+450), albeit with much longer odds than Wembanyama’s opening number last year.
Top overall pick Risacher has opened at +600 at BetMGM and FanDuel, compared to +450 at DraftKings. Risacher is a versatile talent with long-term potential, although he might not earn a starting spot on a crowded Hawks roster.
The Spurs selected UConn guard Stephon Castle fourth overall, and the two-time national champion checks in with the third-shortest odds at +700 across the board. With San Antonio’s void at point guard, Castle has an opportunity to jump into a contributing role immediately.
After Castle, oddsmakers diverge on the most likely players to win Rookie of the Year. Sharpshooter Reed Sheppard (third pick), explosive athlete Salaun (sixth), and elite rim defender Donovan Clingan (seventh) are in the mix.
Early Rookie of the Year betting trends
Dalton Knecht, the leading scorer in the SEC last season, fell to the Los Angeles Lakers at No. 17 but is still in the mix with the favorites with odds as short as +900 at BetMGM. Matas Buzelis fell to the Chicago Bulls at No. 11 and is generally considered a long shot, but FanDuel has the rangy 6-foot-10 wing with the fourth-shortest odds (+850) for openers.
Zach Edey, the two-time NCAA Player of the Year, has gained some steam with his Rookie of the Year odds shifting from +2500 to +1200 after the Memphis Grizzlies took the 7-foot-4 center with the No. 9 pick. Around 33% of early tickets at FanDuel have been on Edey, and FanDuel is around 20% of tickets, with both books reporting over 30% of handle on the Purdue product.
Knecht is drawing the second-highest percentage of tickets and handle at both books, with FanDuel taking early action on Kentucky guard Rob Dillingham, whom the Spurs selected eighth overall and traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
NBA ROY sleepers
The 2024 NBA Draft has been characterized as balanced and deep, even if observers generally don’t consider the top picks to be franchise-altering at first glance. Could we see a player selected outside of the top 10 win the Rookie of the Year award for just the second time in the modern era?
Even within the top 10, fifth overall selection Ron Holland (Detroit Pistons) could count as a sleeper, with +2000 odds at FanDuel. Observers once rated Holland as the top overall prospect in this draft class, and the 6-foot-8 wing averaged 18.5 points per game with G League Ignite last season.
Providence product Devin Carter fell to the Sacramento Kings at No. 13, which could be somewhat similar to the value Sacramento found with Tyrese Haliburton at No. 12 in 2020. Carter is getting +4000 odds at BetMGM and FanDuel.
The Wizards took Pittsburgh product Carlton “Bub” Carrington 14th overall and could give him a look right away. Carrington is getting +5000 odds at DraftKings.
Recent Rookie of the Year results
The No. 1 overall pick has won the NBA Rookie of the Year award each of the past two years, with Paolo Banchero taking home the hardware at the end of the 2022-23 season.
Prior to that, Scottie Barnes (the No. 4 pick) edged out No. 3 pick Evan Mobley, following a string of second and third picks (Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, LaMelo Ball) winning the award. From 2014 to 2018, the No. 1 pick again cashed in consistently, with Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Ben Simmons winning the award.
Malcolm Brogdon was the last non-top 10 pick to win Rookie of the Year in the NBA, in 2016, and the second-round selection likely only won because Joel Embiid played just 31 games in his first season. Morant won in 2019-20 in part because No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson played just 24 games, so injuries can definitely be a factor in this award.
