When it comes to betting on the NBA Draft, intel is key. Bettors are always looking for nuggets of information from reporters who can source NBA team executives so that they have an indication of where players might go in the draft. At the same time, those NBA teams could be trying to put out misinformation to improve their own draft standing.
The final days and hours leading up the NBA Draft can involve mixed messages and reports that can move betting markets. In this guide, we go through some past history of reports leading to odds shifts and discuss how information might play a role in the 2024 NBA Draft, along with the latest odds from NBA sportsbooks.
2024 NBA Draft odds
Below are the odds to go number one overall in the NBA Draft:
- Zaccharie Risacher -250
- Donovan Clingan +270
- Alexandre Sarr +700
- Stephon Castle +2000
- Matas Buzelis +8500
- Reed Sheppard +8500
- Rob Dillingham +30000
- Nikola Topic +30000
- Zach Edey +30000
- Bronny James +30000
Recent shifts to NBA Draft odds
For the past decades, Adrian Wojnarowski has been the gold standard among NBA reporters, beating his competitors to breaking news, trades, and draft selections before the commissioner can even announce them live on the air. Recently, Shams Charania of The Athletic has emerged as a challenger in that space, and both reporters played a role in huge odds shifts ahead of the past two NBA drafts.
Early on June 23, 2022, Wojnarowski tweeted intel suggesting the Orlando Magic were planning to take Jabari Smith Jr. first overall. Knowing Wojnarowski’s reputation, sportsbooks shifted Smith Jr. from even money to as short as -10000 to go No. 1 overall.
Just a few minutes before the draft, Woj reported that Orlando had obscured its true decision and would take Paolo Banchero first overall, shifting the odds again in a frenzied finish.
The following year on draft day, Charania tweeted around midday that the Charlotte Hornets were strongly considering taking Scoot Henderson No. 2 overall instead of Brandon Miller, which again moved the odds considerably. The Hornets took Miller, and some bettors cried foul because Charania works for FanDuel.
Sportsbooks now face the challenge of adjusting their NBA odds for a market that can experience dramatic shifts due to rumors and reporting. Many books will freeze the odds on the top picks ahead of the draft, and that might become the standard in the hours leading up to the event.
2024 NBA Draft odds movement
Jonathan Givony, ESPN’s draft expert, speculated early in the process that the Atlanta Hawks might take Frenchman Zaccharie Risacher No. 1 overall, which eventually became the consensus in the weeks leading up to the draft.
With enough experts reaching a consensus, Risacher became the clear-cut favorite at sportsbooks by early June, with his odds to go No. 1 shifting from +250 to -250 over the past couple of weeks at DraftKings.
Reporting caused big shifts in the odds for the No. 2 pick. Potential top pick Alexandre Sarr declined invitations to work out for Atlanta, indicating that he preferred to go second overall to the Washington Wizards and that his camp believed the Hawks were targeting Risacher. Sarr’s odds to go No. 2 have shifted from +200 to -700 at FanDuel.
There is still plenty of uncertainty in the top three, with UConn center Donovan Clingan receiving the most tickets to go No. 1 overall at BetMGM. Risacher and Sarr have received the most No. 1 handle at that book.
While Clingan is reportedly in the mix for the top overall pick, he is not the favorite to go third overall to the Houston Rockets. Oddsmakers have locked Kentucky sharpshooter Reed Sheppard into the third spot, with his odds to go No. 3 approaching -200 at FanDuel. Rumors are swirling about Houston trading that pick, which opens the door for other teams to move up and potentially select Clingan or another player.
Reporting on potential trades could further move the odds for several picks in the top 10, with teams looking to move their position in a trade that is clouded with uncertainty.
How to bet on the NBA Draft
As the draft approaches, books are releasing more betting lines beyond the first three overall picks.
Player draft position is a popular proposition, with each prospect receiving an over/under line and odds juiced in either direction of that selection number. You’ll also find odds on players to go in the top five or the top 10 or the first round, and DraftKings and FanDuel are both offering head-to-head props on which prospect a team will draft first.
There are top three and top four exact order propositions that can function as parlays. Most books will not allow bettors to manually pair NBA Draft wagers into a parlay, but FanDuel is offering specials in the form of prebuilt parlays.
Note that Wojnarowski tweeted the expected exact order of the top three picks in 2022 but was ultimately proven wrong when the Magic decided to take Banchero No. 1 overall.
Bronny James odds
According to reports sourced from scouts and team executives, USC freshman Bronny James is not expected to be drafted in the first round, yet books have taken a large number of tickets in the past month on the son of LeBron James going first overall.
Since his draft position has become such a popular betting item, books are offering futures odds on which team will select Bronny James, with the Los Angeles Lakers as the favorites across the board, followed by the Suns at +700 at DraftKings, which lists 47.5 as the over/under for Bronny’s draft position.
