UFC 302 will take place Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main event will be a UFC lightweight title fight, with champion Islam Makhachev defending his 155-pound title against challenger Dustin Poirier.
After opening with Makhachev as a significant favorite, the betting line has only widened, with the champion currently a -590 favorite. Poirier is a +450 underdog in his third attempt to capture an undisputed UFC title.
Below, we’ll look at the latest prop bet odds on the UFC 302 main event. You can also check out full UFC odds on every upcoming event.
UFC 302 main event prop breakdown
At BetMGM, four of the five most popular bets for UFC 302 are on Poirier to pull off the upset. Of those four bets, three are props on Poirier to finish the fight inside the five-round distance. Poirier by TKO/KO/DQ (+650) is UFC 302’s most popular wager at BetMGM, followed by Poirier via submission (+1800), with Makhachev via submission (-120) in third place.
One interesting prop bet among BetMGM’s top five is also the most specific: Poirier via guillotine choke (+2500). Much has been made in the lead-up to this fight about Poirier’s habit of jumping for guillotine chokes in his fights. He did it several times in his last bout, against the advice of his coaches, and has said he has no plans to stop. But in nearly 40 pro fights, Poirier has never won a fight via guillotine.
Makhachev is also an accomplished grappler and has never been submitted in an MMA fight. Rounding out the top five most popular bets is Poirier via decision/technical decision (+1400).
Exactly half of Poirier’s wins have come via KO/TKO, more than any other method. The champion Makhachev owes 11 of his 25 wins to submission finishes, with decision wins accounting for nine of his victories.
When Makhachev does finish fights, he tends to do so quickly. Three of his last five wins have come in the first round. Overall, Makhachev has 15 wins in either the first or second rounds. Poirier has relatively few first-round wins of late and instead tends to get going in the second and third frames.
UFC 302 main event method of victory props
- Poirier via TKO/KO/DQ +650
- Makhachev via TKO/KO/DQ +275
- Poirier via submission +1800
- Makhachev via submission -120
- Poirier via decision/technical decision +1400
- Makhachev via decision/technical decision +500
UFC 302 main event round props
- Poirier to win in Round 1: +1400
- Makhachev to win in Round 1: +200
- Poirier to win in Round 2: +2000
- Makhachev to win in Round 2: +350
- Poirier to win in Round 3: +3000
- Makhachev to win in Round 3: +650
- Poirier to win in Round 4: +4500
- Makhachev to win in Round 4: +1000
- Poirier to win in Round 5: +5000
- Makhachev to win in Round 5: +1600
How to watch UFC 302
- Early prelims: 6 p.m. ET, Saturday, ESPN+
- Prelims: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ESPN+
- Main card: 10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ pay-per-view
