UFC 301 goes down in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday, with a flyweight title fight between champion Alexandre Pantoja and challenger Steve Erceg in the main event. Pantoja comes in as the -185 favorite, though the line has tightened since odds opened. While Erceg started as a significant underdog, he’s now at +150 after opening at nearly +200.
Below, we’ll look at the latest prop bet odds for the UFC 301 main event. You can also check out full UFC odds on every upcoming event.
UFC 301 main event prop bets
According to information from BetMGM, the most popular prop bets so far involve Erceg to pull off the upset inside the distance. The top choice with BetMGM bettors so far is Erceg to win via TKO, KO, or DQ, followed by Erceg via submission. A submission win for Pantoja is third on that list.
Pantoja’s grappling game is well-established at this point, which likely explains why his odds to win via submission are shorter than the line on any other finish inside the distance. With 10 submission victories — two in his last four fights — Pantoja almost has as many wins via tapout as Erceg has total victories as a pro. That said, Erceg has more wins by submission than he has by any other method. He has yet to submit anyone in the UFC, however, and he picked up just the second knockout victory of his career in his last fight in March.
Both men tend to pick up finishes earlier in fights. Of Pantoja’s last five finishes, four came in the first round. Erceg had five first-round finishes on the regional scene in his home country of Australia, but his lone UFC finish came in the first minute of the second round.
Method of victory props
- Pantoja via submission: +300
- Erceg via submission: +1200
- Pantoja via TKO/KO/DQ: +450
- Erceg via TKO/KO/DQ: +375
- Pantoja via decision: +200
- Erceg via decision: +450
Round props
- Pantoja to win in Round 1: +650
- Erceg to win in Round 1: +1100
- Pantoja to win in Round 2: +850
- Erceg to win in Round 2: +1400
- Pantoja to win in Round 3: +1000
- Erceg to win in Round 3: +1600
- Pantoja to win in Round 4: +1200
- Erceg to win in Round 4: +2000
- Pantoja to win in Round 5: +1600
- Erceg to win in Round 5: +2500
For more details on betting markets and how to bet, visit our UFC betting guide.
How to watch UFC 301
- Early prelims: 6 p.m. ET, ESPN+
- Prelims: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Main card: 10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ pay-per-view
