UFC 299 goes down at Miami’s Kaseya Center this Saturday. The main event will be bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera in a 135-pound rematch, this time with the title on the line.
O’Malley (17-1) comes in as the favorite at odds of -263 despite having lost the first fight in 2020 via TKO after suffering a lower leg injury early in the bout. That remains the only loss on O’Malley’s professional record, and he’s won five straight since that fight, with one no-contest due to an accidental eye poke.
Vera (23-8-1) is a +225 underdog in his first crack at a UFC title. He’s coming off a unanimous decision over Pedro Munhoz in August, but before that he lost a close split decision to Cory Sandhagen. Vera has a reputation as a slow starter in fights, but he did score a late knockout win over former champ Dominick Cruz in 2022, plus a front kick KO of former lightweight champ Frankie Edgar in 2021.
O’Malley was consistently underestimated throughout his climb to the title. He was a +215 underdog in his last fight, a TKO victory over then-champion Aljamain Sterling to win the 135-pound title. In the fight before that, he was a +225 underdog against former champ Petr Yan, whom O’Malley then defeated via split decision. This is the first time in three fights that O’Malley has opened as the favorite, though his fan-favorite status typically means that lines shift in his direction as the money comes in closer to fight night.
Vera hasn’t won a fight in which he opened as the underdog since he beat Rob Font in 2022. The three other UFC bouts in which Vera opened as the underdog — against Sandhagen, Jose Aldo, and Song Yadong — all resulted in losses for him. Below we breakdown all odds from the top UFC sportsbooks.
UFC 299 odds and fight card
Sean O’Malley | Marlon Vera |
Dustin Poirier | Benoit Saint-Denis |
Kevin Holland | Michael Page |
Gilbert Burns | Jack Della Maddalena |
Petr Yan | Song Yadong |
Curtis Blaydes | Jailton Almeida |
Katlyn Chookagian | Maycee Barber |
Mateusz Gamrot | Rafael dos Anjos |
Pedro Munhoz | Kyler Phillips |
Ion Cutelaba | Philipe Lins |
Michel Pereira | Michal Oleksiejczuk |
Robelis Despaigne | Josh Parisian |
C.J. Vergara | Assu Almabayev |
Joanne Wood | Maryna Moroz |
How to watch UFC 299
- Early prelims — 6 p.m. ET, ESPN+
- Prelims — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN+
- Main card — 10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ pay-per-view