UFC 295 takes place Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York City, headlined by Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira for the vacant light heavyweight title. Oddsmakers see this as a pretty even matchup, with Prochazka at odds and Pereira currently at .
The co-main event for UFC 295 features Tom Aspinall vs. Sergei Pavlovich in a fight for the interim heavyweight title. This is another close one according to the odds, with Aspinall at odds and Pavlovich currently at to win.
Full UFC 295 betting odds and analysis of Saturday night’s dueling pay-per-view title fights are below.
UFC 295 odds for every fight
|Jiri Prochazka||Alex Pereira|
|Tom Aspinall||Sergei Pavlovich|
|Mackenzie Dern||Jessica Andrade|
|Matt Frevola||Benoit Saint-Denis|
|Diego Lopes||Pat Sabatini|
|Steve Erceg||Alessandro Costa|
|Tabatha Ricci||Loopy Godinez|
|Mateusz Rebecki||Roosevelt Roberts|
|Nazim Sadykhov||Viacheslav Borshchev|
|Jared Gordon||Mark Madsen|
|John Castaneda||Kang Kyung-ho|
|Joshua Van||Kevin Borjas|
|Dennis Buzukja||Jamall Emmers|
UFC 295 main event odds & analysis
Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
Prochazka (29-3-1) is returning from a severe shoulder injury that forced him to vacate the UFC 205-pound title almost as soon as he’d won it in a wild fight with former champ Glover Teixeira. He hasn’t fought since June of 2022, and now he faces the difficult task of jumping straight back into the fire with a five-round fight for the vacant title.
Pereira (8-2) moved up to light heavyweight after winning and then immediately losing the UFC middleweight title in back-to-back fights with Israel Adesanya. His first fight at 205 pounds was a lackluster split decision win over former champ Jan Blachowicz, who exposed some of the holes in Pereira’s wrestling game before running out of gas late in the fight.
In terms of pure kickboxing, Pereira is one of the best in the UFC. He spent the early part of his fighting career in that sport and is still dangerous when he gets space and a chance to work his striking game. The big question is whether his grappling has improved enough to allow him to stay upright against the bigger opponents in the 205-pound class.
Prochazka is by no means a wrestler, but he is still a solid all-around fighter with much more MMA experience. He might look to test Pereira’s ground game after what we saw in the Blachowicz fight, but for him the big question is whether he’ll have to shake off any rust after his long injury layoff. If Prochazka is slow to start, Pereira has the kind of power and striking acumen that could make it a quick night. But if Prochazka can put Pereira on the defensive and force him to worry about the takedowns, he could seize the upper hand.
UFC 295 co-main event odds & analysis
Tom Aspinall vs. Sergei Pavlovich
Aspinall (13-3) is a big, athletic heavyweight with multiple ways to win a fight. His lone UFC loss so far came from a freak knee injury right at the beginning of his fight with Curtis Blaydes last year, but he rebounded with a quick destruction of Marcin Tybura over the summer to solidify himself as one of the top heavyweights of the next generation.
Pavlovich (18-1) is the slightly shorter man, but he is also known for being a big guy who can move. The major difference is that the Russian has never even seen a submission in a fight, either on the giving or receiving end, and has done most of his work with his fists. When Pavlovich gets the chance to set and throw punches in combinations, he’s lethal. He excels at backing opponents into the fence and then letting fly with fight-ending flurries.
One potential advantage for Pavlovich is that he was at least nominally preparing for a fight on this date, having been tapped by the UFC as the emergency replacement for the originally planned bout between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. With that fight scuttled by injury, the UFC brought Aspinall in as a late fill-in, meaning only one of them had ample opportunity to prepare for this bout.
Still, Aspinall may have the better overall game, and he’s not afraid to take opponents down and look for submissions. But in a fight between two big, explosive heavyweights like this, sometimes it just comes down to who connects first.
How to watch UFC 295
- Early prelims — ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET
- Prelims — ESPNews, 8 p.m. ET
- Main card — ESPN+ pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET