The UFC heads to The O2 Arena in London on Saturday to complete the trilogy between 170-pound champ Leon Edwards and former champ Kamaru Usman. This third and likely decisive meeting comes seven months after Edwards knocked out Usman in the final minute of the final round to take the title from him.
In the co-main event, 155-pound knockout artist Justin Gaethje takes on Rafael Fiziev, a striking specialist on a six-fight winning streak.
Read on for a betting preview of the main card, plus a look at the UFC 286 odds from multiple legal US sportsbooks.
UFC 286 main event odds
Leon Edwards () vs. Kamaru Usman ()
Usually when you win a title fight via knockout, you don’t open as the underdog in the immediate rematch, as Edwards is here. But then, this is not exactly the usual rubber match, since Usman has dominated almost every round these two have spent in the cage together, yet still ended his night unconscious on the mat last August.
In their first fight in 2015 and the rematch in 2022, Usman’s wrestling was the difference-maker. His clinch game against the fence and his takedowns and top control on the mat allowed him to grind out that first decision win over Edwards, and he seemed well on his way to a repeat in the second fight. It was one perfect head kick by Edwards in the last minute of a fight he was on his way to losing that rendered the scorecards moot.
If Usman can control him the way he did in that fight, but without leaving the opening for the one big strike, another victory is possible. What the champion Edwards will have going for him here, aside from the support of his countrymen in England, is the confidence from having beaten Usman.
UFC 286 co-main event odds
Justin Gaethje () vs. Rafael Fiziev ()
For a fighter who comes from a wrestling background, Gaethje has made a surprising name for himself as one of the lightweight division’s premier sluggers. As a fellow fighter once said of him, he’s the kind of guy who would light himself on fire just to burn you a little bit. That’s how he typically fights.
What that means here, for a technically sound kickboxer like Fiziev, is that Gaethje won’t be hard to find. The challenge for Fiziev is to stay disciplined and pick Gaethje apart without getting drawn into the type of brawl that would be more to Gaethje’s advantage than Fiziev’s. If he can do that, he could win. But if his ego or desire for a finish gets to him, he could end up in the kind of messy fight that Gaethje loves.
UFC 286 props and round betting
In the title fight main event, the big question is whether we’ll see the scorecards and go five full rounds. If Usman has his way again, a decision seems entirely possible. He’s not incapable of finishing by any means, but especially after getting knocked out last time, he may choose to play it safe and grind out a win on the mat without taking too many chances in search of a TKO win.
Similarly in the co-main event, Fiziev is the more technical fighter, but Gaethje has toughness to spare and is incredibly difficult to put away quickly. If either of these fights end inside the distance, it would seem to favor the underdogs. If the favorites have their way, they’re probably going the distance.
Full UFC 286 odds and fight card
Main card
Leon Edwards () vs. Kamaru Usman ()
Justin Gaethje () vs. Rafael Fiziev ()
Gunnar Nelson () vs. Bryan Barbarena ()
Jennifer Maia () vs. Casey O’Neill ()
Marvin Vettori () vs. Roman Dolidze ()
Prelim Card
Jack Shore () vs. Makwan Amirkhani ()
Chris Duncan () vs. Omar Morales ()
Sam Patterson () vs. Yanal Ashmoz ()
Early Prelims
Lerone Murphy () vs. Gabriel Santos ()
Christian Leroy Duncan () vs. Dusko Todorovic ()
Malcolm Gordon () vs. Jake Hadley ()
Joanne Wood () vs. Luana Carolina ()
Jai Herbert () vs. Ludovit Klein ()
Juliana Miller () vs. Veronica Macedo ()
How To Watch UFC 286
- • Early prelims on ESPN+, 1 p.m. ET
- • Prelims on ESPNews, ESPN+, 3 p.m. ET
- • Main card on ESPN+ pay-per-view, 5 p.m. ET
