After releasing its virtual sports betting Euro 2016 product, called EURO CUP, Betradar decided to put the simulator through its paces 480 times to see what predictions it made.
Unsurprisingly, the virtual tournament product found that Germany is the favorite to win this year’s biggest soccer tournament, with France a close second.
Germany made the final match in 151 of the 480 simulations, and won the cup in 99 of those matches. France made the final 144 times and won 90 times.
At the opposite end of the success scale, Albania, Northern Ireland, Ireland and Hungary didn’t win the competition in any of the simulation runs. However, they all made the finals at least once, and tiny Iceland not only made the final six times, but emerged as the winner once.
Here are the top choices by the simulations:
| Country | Reached final | Won Final | % Reached Final | % Won Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 151 | 99 | 32.8% | 21.5% |
| France | 144 | 90 | 31.3% | 19.6% |
| Portugal | 96 | 42 | 20.9% | 9.1% |
| Spain | 81 | 43 | 17.6% | 9.3% |
| Belgium | 74 | 40 | 16.1% | 8.7% |
| England | 58 | 25 | 12.6% | 5.4% |
| Italy | 51 | 25 | 11.1% | 5.4% |
| Croatia | 40 | 18 | 8.7% | 3.9% |
| Turkey | 38 | 18 | 8.3% | 3.9% |
| Switzerland | 30 | 13 | 6.5% | 2.8% |
| Austria | 30 | 13 | 6.5% | 2.8% |
| Russia | 25 | 9 | 5.4% | 2.0% |
| Wales | 24 | 10 | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Poland | 19 | 4 | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Sweden | 12 | 5 | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Czech Republic | 10 | 2 | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Slovakia | 8 | 1 | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Ukraine | 6 | 1 | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Iceland | 6 | 1 | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Albania | 5 | 0 | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Romania | 4 | 1 | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Northern Ireland | 4 | 0 | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Hungary | 3 | 0 | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ireland | 1 | 0 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Simulations produce fun data but there is a serious side
Betradar’s Euro 2016 product is being taken up by many online sports betting operators to run in conjunction with the live Euro 2016 competition.
The availability of virtual sports betting gives operators the chance to capitalize on the intense betting interest the competition has aroused, not just in Europe, but across Asia too.
The product offers a different but complementary experience for sports bettors themselves. They can bet on their favorite team in both the live event and in Betradar’s virtual tournament.
Having two chances to see a favorite team win gives players a higher probability of a positive betting experience.
Virtual sports data will be a valuable tool for sports bettors
The data which Betradar has published from the 480 simulations forms a basic guide to the Euro odds bookmakers will be setting at the early stage of the competition. Even at the most recreational level of sports betting, the information will be of interest to punters.
The ability to create such statistics gives the Euro 2016 virtual tournament product the potential to produce lots of content for the sportsbooks that adopt it. This data is the kind of data which higher volume sports bettors want to know.
Neale Deeley, Managing Director of Virtual Sports at Betradar said:
“It may not surprise anyone that the top two in the betting market are the likeliest winners of the Euros, but we have the data that proves just about anyone can lift the trophy if results go their way to set up the last 16 the right way.”
“It adds an extra layer of verisimilitude that we can also see where patriotism (in the case of England) and reputation (in the case of Spain) would appear to be influencing betting prices rather than actual data.”
Monte-Carlo testing can be used to prove game fairness for virtual sports
Betradar’s virtual sports version of the Euro 2016 is based on a large set of statistical data. Matches are then played according to an algorithm combined with a random number generator to produce a set of outcomes which should match the probabilities of those outcomes happening in real life.
The real tournament can’t be run thousands of times, but the simulated version can. Such Monte-Carlo simulations are a proven way of testing that the outcomes in the virtual product occur with the correct probability given the statistics that have been input.
This is part of the essential game integrity which virtual sports betting products must have to be trusted by operators and punters alike.
Simulations showing that even the most unlikely teams can win may encourage more bettors to back rank outsiders.
When the unexpected happens and the less likely teams win, there is a short-term pain for the bookmaker, and short-term exultation for the punter. But in the long run, more players backing longer odds teams means more profits for the operators.
