NFL betting app downloads climbed 28% year over year in Week 2, driven largely by prediction markets as traditional sportsbooks continued to struggle with customer acquisition ahead of Thursday night’s start to Week 3.
The 2.8 million NFL betting app downloads recorded during the week ending Sept. 21 brought growth through the first two weeks of the season to 19%, according to Sensor Tower data quoted by Citizens. Nearly half of that total, 1.33 million downloads, came from Kalshi and Polymarket combined.
The growth came during another eventful weekend for NFL betting, with major underdog victories, lower-scoring games and billions of dollars in prediction market trading volume. Week 3 begins Thursday night when the Green Bay Packers host the Atlanta Falcons.
NFL betting comes back down to earth
The New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns produced two of Week 2’s biggest surprises, winning outright as 8.5-point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, respectively.
The results provided a contrast with Week 1, when favorites dominated the opening Sunday and teams produced the highest-scoring Week 1 Sunday in NFL history. Scoring slowed considerably in Week 2, with unders cashing in 10 of the 16 games, typically a favorable result for oddsmakers.
Through two weeks, favorites are 23-9 straight up and 17-15 against the spread, while Unders have cashed in 17 of 32 games.
The early-season trends will get their next test Thursday night when the Packers host the Falcons at 8:15 p.m. ET. Green Bay enters at 1-1, while Atlanta is 0-2 and will have Michael Penix Jr. back for his first start since suffering a season-ending ACL injury last November.
Kalshi, Polymarket dominate downloads
Prediction markets continued to account for much of the industry’s download growth despite another difficult week for traditional sportsbooks.
Kalshi recorded 706,000 downloads in Week 2, while Polymarket added 624,000. Their combined 1.33 million downloads represented approximately 47.5% of the week’s total.
Through two weeks, Polymarket leads all tracked operators with 1.37 million downloads, followed by Kalshi with 1.31 million. DraftKings ranks third at 805,000, followed by FanDuel at 502,000.
Citizens attributed traditional sportsbooks’ continued weakness partly to difficult year-over-year comparisons and the absence of new state launches and customer growth that helped drive downloads last season.
Kalshi still lags on parlay pricing
Citizens also found that Kalshi offered lower implied vig than DraftKings and FanDuel on a sample of Week 2 NFL moneyline and totals markets.
Across 30 pricing observations collected Friday, Sept. 18, Kalshi’s average implied vig was 4.22%, compared with 4.43% at FanDuel and 4.50% at DraftKings. The figures exclude applicable Kalshi transaction fees.
The advantage did not extend to parlays. In a separate 15-observation sample of favorite and Over combinations, Kalshi’s implied vig averaged 26.4%, compared with 23.9% at DraftKings. Citizens said Kalshi’s combo pricing was also 6% higher than FanDuel’s, before transaction fees.
Prediction market parlays explode
Kalshi’s combos generated $26 billion in volume over the preceding 30 days, representing 53% of its total, compared with a 44% average over the previous 90 days, according to Citizens.
Kalshi’s trading volume also continued to climb in Week 2. The exchange recorded its first $3 billion day Saturday, while Sunday volume reached approximately $2.82 billion, up 14.6% from the previous week, according to TickerTracker.
Those figures represent notional trading volume, which includes activity beyond the amount customers initially stake and is not directly comparable with traditional sportsbook handle.
Citizens said its customer-wallet analysis suggests prediction-market adoption may be expanding the overall wagering market rather than simply taking business from sportsbooks. The firm expects traditional sportsbook handle growth to accelerate later this year as operators move past difficult comparisons.
