NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell keeps telling reporters the league will be patient with prediction market partnerships. Recent compliance with the league’s requests from operators and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission suggests companies are preparing for when that time comes.
The NFL sent a second letter to prediction markets before Week 1 of the season, urging them to drop “objectionable” markets tied to the game. Polymarket had already withdrawn player participation markets weeks earlier, and Kalshi followed suit before Week 1. Novig had complied from the beginning.
To form a relationship, Goodell told CNBC that “stronger regulations” need to be in place to protect the integrity of the game, which was a big point of emphasis in both letters to platforms in March and earlier this month.
“So, we’re continuing to have conversations with them and talk to them about the things that we think they need to do to strengthen that so that they could be potential partners at some point in the future,” Goodell added.
Prediction markets, CFTC falling in line
The first letter the NFL sent to the prediction markets in March seemingly fell on deaf ears. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket decided to self-certify player participation contracts despite the league outlining markets concerning injuries were problematic.
Polymarket withdrew its entry one day after self-certifying it last month. Kalshi’s player participation contracts were no longer seen on the CFTC’s website before Week 1 of the season.
Novig’s CEO Jacob Fortinsky was in “full agreement” with the NFL, “with no exceptions,” when his company got the letter. Novig is also the first prediction market platform that requires users to be 21. The NFL asked for that specific requirement in May.
The CFTC and the NFL seemed to have been working together, long before prediction markets finally fell in line. The CFTC proposed rulemaking changes in June that identified four categories falling outside of public interest:
- Player injuries
- Officiating outcomes
- Micro-bets
- Pre-collegiate sports
In addition, the CFTC established new guidelines just for sports, which included exchanges speaking with sports leagues before self-certifying a market to remain compliant.
NFL wants to be right, not first
There “are a lot of things going on” with prediction markets, Goodell said in the interview. That includes the lawsuits and regulatory concerns surrounding the industry in multiple states.
Kalshi has been on the wrong end of several court decisions, which have ruled in favor of states enforcing gambling laws. The operator is not able to offer sports contracts in Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New York, Utah and Washington.
When specifically asked about looking for more regulatory clarity, Goodell said “we’re looking for a lot of those things” and continued to reiterate protecting the integrity of the game and consumers. In light of everything, Goodell is in no rush.
“We don’t feel like we have to be first in this,” Goodell added. “We feel like we’re going to be right, and the best thing to do is be patient.”
The commissioner said he is also proud of the relationships the NFL already has, which include sports betting partnerships with DraftKings, Fanatics and FanDuel.
Prediction markets go all in
The most popular prediction markets rolled out major ad campaigns ahead of Week 1 of the NFL season.
Novig made a huge splash, employing Sydney Sweeney to promote its product as a “just sports” platform. Betr brought back the stars from Entourage in a three-and-a-half minute ad.
Polymarket partnered with LeBron James, Eli Manning and Derek Jeter while Kalshi’s big football ad featured Marshawn Lynch.
