The NFL is pushing prediction markets to scale back a range of sports-related contracts it believes could expose the league to manipulation risks and insider information concerns.
In a letter sent Sunday to Kalshi and Polymarket, the league outlined several categories it views as problematic, particularly markets tied to events that can be influenced by individuals, known in advance, or connected to sensitive topics like injuries and officiating. That includes contracts tied to broadcast commentary or which celebrities appear at games.
The push comes as prediction markets continue to expand deeper into sports, now the vast majority of activity on their platforms. Details of the letter were first reported by ESPN.
NFL flags integrity-sensitive markets
At the core of the NFL’s concerns are contracts it believes fall outside the guardrails typically enforced in regulated sportsbooks, such as:
- Events that could be manipulated by a single actor.
- Outcomes that may be known ahead of time, such as draft selections or personnel moves.
- Propositions tied to officiating decisions.
- Topics the league considers inherently sensitive, including injuries and fan safety.
Prediction markets growth raises concerns
Unlike sportsbooks, which operate state-by-state under gaming regulators, prediction markets fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
That federal structure has allowed them to expand across all 50 states regardless of local sports betting laws, a core point of contention in ongoing legal fights with state regulators in places like Nevada and New Jersey.
Kalshi alone has taken more than $50 billion in total trading volume since launching sports event contracts in 2025, with roughly 86% tied to sports.
But the model also introduces new dynamics. Contracts are traded peer-to-peer rather than against the house, increasing the importance of information advantages and raising concerns about who may have access to non-public insights, according to the NFL.
NFL, CFTC alignment still evolving
NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller told ESPN the league is particularly wary of markets where certain participants could hold informational advantages, whether tied to broadcast production, league operations, or player-related developments.
“Some people are going to have that information … that they can then share,” Miller said. “We’re trying to stay as far as we can from some of those sorts of inside information wagers that could exist in this space.”
The NFL has spent months in discussions with the CFTC, though it does not yet have a formal agreement with the regulator.
The agency recently opened an advance notice of proposed rulemaking seeking input on how to define and regulate prediction markets. CFTC chair Michael Selig has indicated the agency is likely to give weight to league input when evaluating whether specific contracts are susceptible to manipulation.
The NCAA has already weighed in, urging regulators to block certain college sports-related contracts and warning that markets tied to player performance or transfer portal activity could heighten integrity risks.
Prediction markets face regulatory pressure
The NFL’s position comes as prediction markets face mounting scrutiny on multiple fronts.
A bipartisan Senate bill introduced last week would prohibit contracts that resemble sports betting, while state regulators continue to argue that those function as unlicensed gambling. The proposal would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit those markets while reinforcing that federal law should not override state authority.
Lawmakers have also introduced separate proposals targeting so-called “death contracts” and other sensitive markets tied to war, terrorism, or political violence.
Meanwhile, the MLB, NHL, UFC and MLS have each entered partnerships with prediction market platforms. The MLB earlier this month signed the first memorandum of understanding between the CFTC and a professional sports league.
