Prediction markets continued gaining momentum in June despite an uncertain legal and political backdrop as record trading volumes and a flurry of business developments strengthened the industry’s long-term investment case, according to a report from investment bank Macquarie.
Prediction markets generated more than $50 billion in notional trading volume during June, driven largely by the FIFA World Cup, according to the report.
Kalshi accounted for roughly $33 billion of that volume, increasing its estimated market share to approximately 65% from 57% in May. On an annualized basis, June’s trading pace implies an industry processing more than $500 billion in yearly volume, while sports contracts accounted for roughly half of all prediction market activity, according to the report.
Prediction markets grow reach
Macquarie said recent partnerships and product launches suggest prediction markets are expanding into a broader ecosystem that includes sportsbooks, official data providers and market infrastructure companies.
Among the developments highlighted was DraftKings launching DKeX, its proprietary prediction market exchange built on the infrastructure it acquired through Railbird Technologies. Macquarie said the move gives DraftKings greater control over pricing, product development and economics while reinforcing management’s view that prediction markets represent a long-term product extension rather than simply a competitive response to Kalshi.
Macquarie cited Polymarket‘s partnership with Liga MX, supported by Genius Sports‘ official data and integrity services, Kalshi’s partnership with ADI Predictstreet and Meta’s reported exploration of prediction markets as evidence of growing commercial interest in the sector.
Regulatory outlook remains in focus
The report notes the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s recently proposed regulatory framework would largely preserve sports-related event contracts. Those contracts account for more than 85% of Kalshi’s trading but remain the subject of dozens of lawsuits brought by states and tribal gaming groups.
“The proposal underscores that PM have benefited significantly from the Trump administration’s support,” the report reads. “A future Democratic administration could take a more restrictive view, while strengthening state regulatory authority, leaving industry’s regulatory outlook sensitive to political changes.”
Macquarie also highlighted reports that Kalshi is exploring another fundraising round valuing the company at roughly $40 billion, about twice its recently completed Series F financing, reflecting growing institutional interest in the sector.
