Facebook parent company Meta is reportedly exploring its own prediction markets product, with The New York Times reporting that CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small team to build a mobile app internally known as Arena.
Arena would reportedly resemble Polymarket and Kalshi. However, the concept would use a points-based system at launch rather than real money, though the company has not ruled out adding cash wagering later.
The Times said the app would operate separately from Meta’s core social platforms, but Facebook and Instagram could eventually be used to funnel users into it.
That setup would give Meta a huge distribution advantage if it decides to move forward, especially given the company’s existing reach across social media, messaging and creator ecosystems.
What Meta is planning for prediction markets
According to the Times, the project is being developed by a small internal team and is meant to look like a prediction markets app along the lines of Polymarket and Kalshi with a key difference.
Rather than real money, users would earn points in a game-like format for correctly predicting outcomes, with the possibility of real money options left open for later versions.
That suggests Meta might try to build audience engagement first and sort out the regulatory and monetization questions after the product has traction.
Meta brings mainstream scale
A Meta prediction markets app would instantly bring mainstream scale and credibility to a sector that has grown rapidly but remains relatively new and legally messy.
If the company successfully pairs prediction markets with social distribution, it could reshape how users interact with forecasts the same way social media changed content discovery.
Prediction markets are exploding
The timing is notable because prediction market volume has surged dramatically over the past year.
Combined monthly global trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026.
Kalshi itself recently crossed the $100 billion mark in total lifetime volume.
For now, Polymarket and Kalshi remain the two dominant players. They split the market by user behavior and product focus. Kalshi has leaned heavily into sports, while Polymarket has been stronger in politics, crypto and other news-driven markets.
Regulatory questions remain
Even if the initial version is uses points, real-money prediction markets would raise the same questions that have dogged the sector all year. Operators and the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission are in legal battles across the US over the regulatory jurisdiction of the industry.
The cases are to determine whether the contracts are gambling, securities, derivatives or something in between.
To expand the product, Meta would also need to think through whether it wants to enter a space that is already under active regulatory scrutiny from the CFTC and state officials.
