The group stage of the 2022 FIFA World Cup concludes on Friday, and the matchups will soon be set for the knockout round of the tournament. It’s win or go home for all the teams in the round of 16, so let’s take a look at the pairings to see which favorites are favored to go through to the quarterfinals and which underdogs have a chance to pull off an upset. Here are the 2022 World Cup Knockout round odds.
World Cup Knockout Round Odds 2022
(Important note: For betting purposes in the knockout phase of the World Cup, results are considered “final” at the end of regulation time. If the match is tied at full time and an extra period or penalty kicks are required to choose a winner, that result technically qualifies as a draw with most sportsbooks. To cash a bet on a team that wins in the extra period or penalty kicks, you would need to bet on that team to move on to the next round.)
Round of 16 Schedule and Betting Insights
Netherlands () vs. USA (), Saturday 10 a.m. ET
The U.S. has only won a game in the knockout stage of the World Cup one time in its modern history, and that was against cross-border rival Mexico, with whom the squad is always very familiar. Beating a European powerhouse like the Netherlands, which came into this tournament ranked eighth in the world, would be a wholly unprecedented success for the Americans.
This Dutch team won its group and extended its unbeaten streak in international play to 18 straight matches. When given space to work and play its game, the Netherlands is a machine. But make it messy and the team sometimes shows signs of frustration.
The American side has shown it can scrap and claw its way to moderate success in low-scoring affairs, but that means it needs to stifle a talented Dutch attack that includes Cody Gakpo, who’s among this tournament’s top goalscorers with three tallies in the group stage. That’s more goals than the entire American team scored through three matches of group play.
Other betting options: Gakpo is going off at to score a goal at some point in this match. Those odds go up to if you think he’ll score the first goal here.
Argentina () vs. Australia (), Saturday, 2 p.m. ET
Argentina managed to find its stride after suffering the biggest upset of this tournament in an opening match loss to Saudi Arabia, and has since looked more like the juggernaut people were expecting headed into this World Cup. The squad won comfortable victories over both Mexico and Poland to win the group, and it would be a major disappointment if this team didn’t make it at least to the quarterfinals with a win here.
The Australians, on the other hand, started out just happy to be here. Few people expected the team to emerge from group play, but a win over Tunisia and a big upset over Denmark in the final match was good enough for second place in the group and a spot in the round of 16. The word often used to describe this team is “plucky.”
If you’re going to beat Argentina, you have to deal with Lionel Messi. He may be a little older and slower in what’s expected to be his final World Cup, but his breakthrough goal against Mexico showed he can still change a match if you forget about him for a single second. Australia doesn’t have the offensive firepower for a high-scoring shootout, so limiting Argentina’s scoring chances will be key.
Other betting options: Messi is currently at to score at least two goals here.
France () vs. Poland (), Sunday, 10 a.m. ET
The defending World Cup champs showed why they deserved to be among the favorites in the group stage, routing Australia and beating Denmark to secure the victory in the group, then playing mostly backups in the loss to Tunisia. Kylian Mbappe is among the tournament’s top scorers, as expected, and teammate Olivier Giroud isn’t far behind, which has helped make up for the absence of the injured Karim Benzema. This team is playing with a ton of confidence, and it can dazzle with offensive brilliance at almost any point in a match. It just has to guard against overconfidence while staying healthy, as injuries have already depleted the roster somewhat.
Poland’s defense is what gotten it this far in the tournament, but producing goals has been a problem. Goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny has been outstanding, making a record-setting nine saves in one half against Argentina. He equaled another record by stopping two penalty kicks in the same World Cup. Trouble is, when your goalkeeper is getting that much work it’s usually not a great sign for how the team is doing overall.
Poland’s only goals so far in this tournament came against massive underdog Saudi Arabia. That’s a big problem against France.
Other betting options: Odds on Mbappe to get the first goal of the match are at . Giroud is at to score at least once in this game.
England () vs. Senegal (), Sunday, 2 p.m. ET
Despite not getting a single goal from Harry Kane in group play, England has found plenty of offense elsewhere (except for in its scoreless draw with the U.S.) The squad routed Iran and Wales by hefty margins to win the group and has also looked solid defensively. Teams looking to hang back and feast on mistakes simply don’t get much help from the English.
After being blanked by the Netherlands and then getting an easy win over host country Qatar, Senegal had to fight hard for a 2-1 win over Ecuador to make it through the group stage. The good news is, this team showed it has plenty of fight. But it does give up too many chances in its own end.
Senegal probably can’t rely on defense to provide the upset here, but it can learn from the American team’s approach against the English to some extent. One key will be keeping an eye on English forward Marcus Rashford, who’s got three goals already in this World Cup.
Other betting options: England’s Rashford is currently at to score a goal against Senegal. Kane is at to get his first goal of this World Cup in this match.
Japan () vs. Croatia (), Monday, 10 a.m. ET
It’s fair to say Japan has been the biggest surprise of this World Cup so far. It wasn’t even among the favorites to advance out of the group that included both Germany and Spain. Instead, it beat both European giants and won the group outright. Normally it would be great news to win the “group of death,” especially for an underdog like Japan. But here it gives Japan arguably a tougher Round of 16 matchup than it would have gotten with a second-place finish.
Croatia got through to the knockout round mainly on the basis of Belgium’s failures. The team probably deserved to lose to the Belgian squad, but somehow got a 0-0 draw that felt like a win after the Belgians failed to convert on scoring chances. So far its only goals in this World Cup have come against Canada, a team that was lucky to qualify at all.
Oddsmakers still favor Croatia, a more experienced team on the international stage. The team’s baffling loss to Costa Rica in group play should be a reminder that it’s not without its weaknesses.
Other betting options: Japan is at to make it through to the quarterfinals, and to reach the semifinals.
Brazil (-400) vs. South Korea (+1200), Monday, 2 p.m. ET
Brazil ended group play with a shocking 1-0 loss to Cameroon on a goal in extra time, and obviously that’s not the best morale best heading into the knockout phase, but this is still the tournament favorite for a reason. The old criticism of the Brazilian squad is that it’s made up of too many prima donnas who don’t always give it their all or play well together as a team. Maybe there’s still some truth to that, but the sheer wealth of talent on this team should take it deep into the tournament when all the matches really matter.
South Korea doesn’t have so many stars to choose from, but the stars it does have delivered when the team needed it most. Son Heung-min set up the winning goal over Portugal with a beautiful pass in the final match of group play, and Hwang Hee-chan knocked it home for the dramatic finisher. Watching the Korean team celebrating with its fans, it was hard not to feel like this team had been swept up in a wave of emotion and momentum that might well carry over into the knockout round.
Still, it might take a miracle to beat a Brazilian team that’s focused and playing for keeps. Neymar is expected to be back from injury in time for the match, and Richarlison has looked brilliant at times so far in this tournament. This is a squad that can make the most out of the tiniest of openings, and South Korea is bound to allow one or two – or more.
Other betting options: Brazil is currently at to advance to the quarterfinals, and to finish somewhere in the tournament’s top four. South Korea is at to see the next round.
Morocco () vs. Spain (), Tuesday, 10 a.m. ET
Morocco probably thought it was doing itself some serious favors by battling its way to the top of its group with wins over Belgium and Canada and a draw with Croatia. But when it saw that the reward for this effort would be a knockout round match with Spain, the team might have been forgiven for wondering if it was all good news to have been so successful in group play.
Spain isn’t the dominant force it once was. This team is younger and less experienced than the squad that won the World Cup in 2010. Still, Spain has the ability to control a game and dictate the pace. It also tends to make some mistakes when teams can break its rhythm and pressure, which is what Morocco will have to do here.
Spain’s confidence has to be dinged by the loss to Japan in the final match of group play. If Morocco can be the one to set the pace, it’s not unthinkable that it could advance. It will have to shut down Spain’s Alvaro Morata, who already has three goals in this tournament.
Other betting options: Morata is at to get the first goal of the match. Morocco’s Hakim Ziyech, who got the team on the board first against Canada, is at to score at some point in the match.
Portugal (-115) vs. Switzerland (+340) , Tuesday, 2 p.m. ET
Finishing group play on a dramatic last-minute loss to South Korea wasn’t how Portugal wanted to enter the round of 16, but chalk some of it up to one team having more to play for than the other. After wins against Ghana and Uruguay, the Portuguese team already had the group sewn up. Now it has to shake off the mostly meaningless loss and get ready for a tough Swiss side with a lot still to prove. Star striker Cristiano Ronaldo has been pretty quiet so far in this World Cup, but Bruno Fernandes has stepped up with two goals so far.
Switzerland is no easy draw for Portugal, and in many ways it’s a team that relishes these kinds of situations. It has the ability to shut teams down defensively at times, but also has the offensive firepower for a back-and-forth shootout when needed, as it showed against Serbia in its final match of group play. It will need to play its best game of this tournament to beat Portugal, but Switzerland has excelled in the past as just such a spoiler. Breel Embrolo has two goals so far in this World Cup and the Portuguese side will have to keep a close watch on him.
Other betting options: Fernandes is currently at to score the first goal of the match, while the odds on Ronaldo striking first are at .
Best World Cup Betting Sites
Most U.S. bettors have several options when it comes to betting sites for World Cup games. Sportsbooks such as DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel are all offering game odds as well as multiple options for in-game props, individual player props and parlays, and more.