Kalshi processed more than $1.1 billion in election trading during the 10 days surrounding the midterms, accounting for just 3% of the platform’s volume as sports and parlays dominated.
Texas‘ closely watched U.S. Senate race led individual election contests with $145 million traded over the final 10 days, according to a Legal Sports Report analysis of prediction market data from TickerTracker.
Over the same period, Kalshi processed $25.3 billion in parlays — nearly $23 for every dollar traded on elections — in addition to $6.1 billion in non-parlay sports contracts. Even on Election Day, when election trading captured 17.5% of daily volume and surpassed non-parlay sports for the first time, parlays drew more than three times as much.
Known as combos on prediction markets, parlays combine multiple outcomes for larger payouts. Kalshi expanded them to include elections ahead of the midterms, though sports have historically dominated and accounted for 99.3% of combo trading from Sept. 1–19, according to a GuardianBlock analysis.
Texas, congressional control led trading
The top five election markets accounted for roughly 54% of Kalshi’s $1.1 billion in election trading during the 10 days ending Nov. 3:
- Texas Senate: $145 million
- House control: $137.5 million
- Congressional balance of power: $111 million
- Texas governor: $100.8 million
- Senate control: $96.7 million
Trading volume measures the value of contracts exchanged, not revenue retained by the platform. Unlike traditional sports betting handle, it can exceed what customers actually stake, particularly on long-odds parlays.
Trading fell sharply beyond the leading contests. Michigan’s Senate race was sixth at $46 million, followed by Florida’s governor race at $39 million. Markets covering 345 individual House races combined for just $24 million.
That uneven activity comes as Kalshi increasingly promotes its election markets as an alternative to traditional polling, though markets with relatively little trading can be much more susceptible to large individual trades.
Election trading lags Kalshi growth
Despite leading individual election contests, the Texas Senate race generated less trading on Election Day than at least 16 NFL games did during live play this season.
Election trading surged ahead of the midterms, with nearly 80% of the 10-day total coming between Nov. 1 and Election Day. Still, elections accounted for just 0.5% of Kalshi’s record $98.2 billion in October trading volume.
In an October announcement, Kalshi said election trading had surpassed 2024 levels and was growing six times faster than football trading compared with the previous year.
A Bloomberg analysis, however, found that election trading on Kalshi during the final week before the midterms was roughly unchanged from the comparable period ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Sports dominate Polymarket trading
The trend extended to rival Polymarket‘s U.S. platform, where sports and parlays accounted for 88% of trading during the 10 days ending Election Day.
Politics, including elections, generated $72.8 million, or 1.3% of total volume. NFL moneyline contracts alone attracted $220 million over the same period, roughly three times as much.
Even on Election Day, politics represented just 4.2% of volume, compared with more than 84% for sports and parlays.
