Nearly two-thirds of the trading volume on FIFA’s official prediction market partner came from a small network of cryptocurrency accounts apparently linked to the company, according to a Wall Street Journal investigation.
Of the $167 million traded on ADI Predictstreet through late September, roughly $108 million came from accounts that traded almost exclusively with one another, WSJ reported Saturday. Those accounts were reportedly funded by a single cryptocurrency wallet that also collected the prediction market’s trading fees.
The findings raise questions about the authenticity of trading activity on a platform that paid FIFA more than $150 million for exclusive advertising rights during the 2026 World Cup.
Linked accounts dominate prediction market trading
Three Harvard University students uncovered the trading patterns through an analysis of public blockchain records. Outside experts who reviewed their findings described the activity as inorganic, according to the Journal.
Since late August, a network of just 795 wallets has accounted for 99% of ADI Predictstreet’s trading volume. Every transaction in one market on a local Texas election came from those accounts, the Journal reported.
The platform launched in April as part of a conglomerate led by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a member of Abu Dhabi’s royal family.
ADI Predictstreet did not respond to the Journal’s requests for comment, while FIFA declined to comment. Gibraltar’s gambling regulator said a preliminary review found no consumer harm and that the company complied with rules against self-trading.
Kalshi, Polymarket volume surges
The findings come as trading volume on major U.S. prediction markets continues to climb, driven overwhelmingly by sports contracts.
Kalshi recorded its two biggest trading days over the weekend, generating $4.4 billion in notional volume Saturday and $4.11 billion Sunday. Sports and parlays accounted for more than 91% of that activity, with parlays alone making up nearly 72%, even with the midterm elections just two weeks away.
Polymarket US generated $1.34 billion over the weekend, including its second-and fifth-highest trading days. Sports and parlays combined for more than 94% of that volume, including 63% from parlays alone.
The growth extends beyond the weekend. Stifel estimated total prediction-market trading volume reached $82.2 billion in September, up 57% from August. Roughly $76.7 billion came from exchanges regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while sports and parlays accounted for 83% of Kalshi’s volume.
Prediction market volume not apples to apples with betting handle
But Stifel cautioned that prediction-market volume figures can overstate actual betting activity. A parlay contract purchased for just one cent can count as $1 in reported volume, while opening and closing the same position can both contribute to trading totals.
Using a narrower measure that more closely resembles sportsbook handle, Stifel estimated $17.7 billion in September trading volume across CFTC-regulated exchanges, up 27% from August. That trailed the 43% increase in regulated sportsbook handle in states that had reported results.
The Journal separately reported last month that nearly $5 billion in repetitive trades on Kalshi’s ether futures market raised questions about potential wash trading. Kalshi denied the allegations.
