Stifel initiated coverage of two sports betting suppliers, Sportradar and Genius Sports, on Wednesday.
Stifel’s Jeffrey Stantial rated Sportradar a buy with a $28 price target and initiated Genius at hold with a $10 target. Both offer a “pick and shovels” model opportunity to invest in online sports betting, which is projected to grow global gross revenue at a 15% compound annual growth rate from 2023 through 2030.
The two suppliers offer “recurring and predictable” revenues and strong customer net retention rates, Stantial said. The sector “seems to be consolidating into a rational duopoly” with the two suppliers, he added.
Stifel recently selected Caesars, FanDuel parent Flutter and theScore parent Penn Entertainment as top gaming stocks for 2026.
The report dropped Wednesday after market close. Sportradar closed at $18.25 while Genius closed at $9.73.
Live sports betting growth a catalyst
Both companies supply low-latency data from sports leagues to sportsbooks and media partners, typically under exclusive agreements.
Sportradar is more diversified and has deals with major leagues including the UEFA, MLB, NBA and NHL. Genius Sports’ biggest partners include the NFL, NCAA football and basketball in the postseason and the English Premier League.
Exposure to the expanding online sports betting total addressable market and the growing live betting market are two main positives, Stantial said. The average take-rate of live data is about two times greater than pre-match data, he explained.
Live betting made up about a third of sports betting gross revenue in 2024, though Stantial cautioned the market may be exposed to “faulty European comparisons” for two reasons:
- Europe is more exposed to tennis than the US, skewing the comparison.
- Same-game parlays are “culturally popular” in the US and are biased toward pre-match bets.
Sportradar preferred for scale, diversity
The preference to rate Sportradar at buy while Genius is a hold comes down to scale and diversity of coverage, Stantial said.
Of the three sports data providers, Sportradar is the largest with about 1 million events a year. Stats Perform is about half of that at 500,000 annually while Genius is around 300,000.
Sportradar also has more sports betting customers at around 800 compared to about 650 for Genius. It also leads in streaming events considerably with more than 480,000 for Sportradar and about 50,000 for Genius.
Sportradar’s scale advantages are “reflected in SRAD’s run-rate margins, [free cash flow generation, pristine balance sheet (~$300M net cash positive), and historical [return on invested capital] premium,” Stantial said.
Genius targets not a ‘low bar’
Stantial cautioned that Genius’ out-year targets are not necessarily a “low bar” to hit. Sports data rights costs are around 35% of revenues, which has been offset by lower research and development costs and marketing reinvestment.
“Meaningful 2024-28E margin expansion also assumes execution on GENI’s self-serve marketing revenue targets, which are less predictable vs. the core data business,” Stantial said.
Genius has an “excellent track record” of hitting near-term guidance, but Stantial noted its long-term margin target of 30% was actually lowered from 40% when Genius introduced the goal in October 2020.
