Genius Sports raised its 2025 guidance Wednesday after second-quarter results showed strong momentum in its sports betting technology business along with a wave of rights deals that executives say will boost profits without significantly raising costs.
Genius Sports posted $118.7 million in revenue for Q2 2025, up 24% year-over-year, and $34.2 million in adjusted EBITDA, a 64% increase from the same period last year and the highest quarterly EBITDA margin in company history at 28.8%.
Betting technology, the data and media firm’s largest and fastest-growing business unit, generated $87.5 million in revenue, up 30% year-over-year. Management attributed the success to increased sports betting volume, expanded services and pricing gains from contract renewals.
“Whether it’s coaching tools, broadcast augmentation, or BetVision, our technology is modernizing how sports are consumed and monetized,” CEO Mark Locke said on the company’s earnings call. “This is why we’ve been able to secure major rights deals on favorable terms, and why we’ve raised our full-year outlook.”
NFL, Serie A deals fuel outlook boost
Genius Sports now expects $645 million in revenue and $135 million in adjusted EBITDA for the full year, up from prior guidance of $621 million and $125 million, respectively.
Executives attributed the raise to recently announced partnerships:
- A multi-year extension with the NFL that now runs through the 2030 Super Bowl and includes expanded BetVision rights and exclusive in-game ad inventory.
- A six-year deal to become the exclusive data and streaming provider for Serie A, the largest betting market in Europe.
- A new agreement with the European Leagues Association, giving Genius access to more than 8,000 matches across 18 member leagues and displacing former partner IMG.
Locke said Genius Sports won the rights to both European soccer packages on the strength of its GeniusIQ technology platform and was able to secure them at significantly lower costs than previous holders.
“These deals are immediately accretive to EBITDA,” CFO Nicholas Taylor said. “They support our long-term strategy of trading rights fees for technology partnerships.”
Genius Sports stock spikes
Despite the raised outlook, Genius Sports shares closed down 4.5% to $11.67 Wednesday after spiking 9% in premarket trading to a 52-week high of $13.33.
Truist’s Barry Jonas attributed the dip to profit-taking after a strong run, with the stock up 33% year-to-date. He characterized the results as consistent and raised his price target $1 to $15, citing Genius’ earnings predictability and “limited exposure to unfavorable sport outcomes or rising tax risks.”
Citizens’ Jordan Bender said the quarter was in line but “slightly disappointing” given the company’s history of beating expectations. He highlighted the recent NFL and PMG partnerships as drivers of the improved full-year outlook and long-term media revenue potential.
