The Final Four tips off this Saturday in San Antonio, marking only the second March Madness semifinal ever to consist of all No. 1 seeds.
Each team left had the shortest March Madness betting odds of any four teams entering the tournament. When combined, those odds are the lowest since before the NCAA began seeding teams in 1979.
A “chalky” men’s college basketball tournament, devoid of upsets and Cinderella runs, has busted an abundance of brackets — 99.9% of which were eliminated after the first day, per Yahoo Sports. The unique scenario has impacted sportsbooks, which were expecting more than $3.1 billion in wagers on the tournament.
“This has not been the greatest of tournaments, as they would say, not our ‘One Shining Moment,’” DraftKings Director of Sports Johnny Avello told LSR. “Favorites, moneyline parlays, one-seeds, two-seeds, three-seeds, very few upsets. But we’ve got three games to go, and bettors sure are flush with money.”
Title Odds Entering the NCAA Tournament
- Duke: +310
- Auburn: +400
- Florida: +550
- Houston: +650
No Cinderellas In March
The public’s propensity to back favorites typically works in the sportsbooks’ favor. Oddsmakers adjust lines to manage exposure and reduce risk on likely outcomes. For instance, Duke is currently priced at -270 to beat Houston (+220) and advance to the title game, which works out to a 73% implied probability of winning. However, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Duke a 54% chance of winning, indicating a much closer contest than the betting line suggests.
March Madness is often unique to public betting because of the draw of a potential Cinderella run. But this year, no Cinderella was given the chance to form. This year was tied for the fewest underdog victories ever through the Elite Eight, preventing any Cinderella from even emerging.
Favorites went 12-0 straight up in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. Heavy favorites, of eight points or more, went 21-0, tied for their second-best record in tournament history.
“You expect something from a tournament that you’ve watched for so many years, and you’re just not seeing some of the things from the past, but there are stretches where this happens,” Avello said. “It’s not what you’d like to see, but the best way to approach it is that the players are on a good run, they’re making some money, and they’re going to be back for future events.”
A Historically Unfavorable Few Months
Avello is adamant that an anomaly of favorites winning does not change the odds-making calculus, but when it happens at such a historic rate, it can have much larger ripple effects.
March Madness is the largest multi-day sports betting event of the year. For sportsbooks, an overall win — still very much in the cards — would be perfect timing, coming off the industry’s worst NFL betting season in 40 years.
At least 75% of NFL favorites won games in 10 different weeks this season. At FanDuel, it caused a $643 million impact on gaming revenue. Other operators reported similar results, with BetMGM having a $50 million impact in December alone due to NFL outcomes.
“You don’t want to put a lot of stock in it; you just go off what your model tells you, stick with what you do, and then you hope that it all averages out,” Avello said. “Sometimes it doesn’t, for a particular period of time. That’s what we’ve been going through the last four months or so.
“But that’s fine. You just keep doing what you do, keep the bettors happy, and let them keep coming back and playing at DraftKings. Eventually, things will work out.”
Handle Up With Public Wins
When customers win more, they tend to bet more, as was the case during the past NFL season as DraftKings reported that handle “exceeded” expectations. The closer the tournament gets to the championship game, the more betting volume the games attract, with fewer games dividing interest and bankrolls.
“Bettors will bet more if you’re winning. That has held true through a lot of sports where bettors go on a good run,” Avello said. “That’s kind of been the case here, too, and we expect that for the last three games.”
DraftKings is anticipating even higher volume on the Final Four and hoping for better overall games.
Lack Of March Madness Competition An Issue
Avello noted that one of the challenges this tournament has faced is the lack of close finishes, identifying its impact on live betting.
“Games haven’t been good at the end,” he said, pointing out that while some contests were close early, they didn’t have the drama of a final possession.
Teams that lead at the half in this year’s tournament are 25-38 against the second-half spread entering the Final Four, the second-worst for any tournament in the last 15 years. That breaks a streak of six consecutive tournaments where teams leading at the half were .500 or better against the second-half spread.
“The line is still doing real well,” Avello said. “Remember, the total is always intact. Teams do make comebacks, even though some of those comebacks haven’t come to fruition, there’s still the chance that they could.”
Public To Keep Backing March Madness Favorites
Duke (-270) is drawing 74% of the money and 78% of bets in its matchup with Houston (+220) as of Thursday afternoon at DraftKings. Duke at -5.5 is drawing 72% of money on the spread and 69% of bets.
“They’re not changing the pattern; they’re still betting the favorites. First of all, Duke is Duke. Duke’s been played the first four games, and they’re going to continue to be played here,” Avello said. “We opened four and a half to five and a half; they’ve taken 75% or more of the money on both the spread and moneyline, and I expect that will only continue closer to tip.”
Florida (-155) is drawing 66% of the money and 60% of bets in its matchup with Auburn (+130) as of Thursday afternoon. The Gators at -2.5 is drawing 74% of money on the spread and 64% of bets.
“Florida is only a two-and-a-half-point favorite, but the public’s playing them also,” Avello said. “Some of that is because the power rating is a little bit higher, so they deserve to be favored. But some of that is maybe because Johni Broome and the news out there is that he’s injured. Maybe they’re feeling he’s not 100%, but he’s going to play. He’s got a whole week to get better over this injury, so we’ll see.”
The best outcome over the weekend for DraftKings would be a Houston win and an Auburn win. Beyond the significant action Duke and Florida have attracted in their respective semifinal games, both teams combine to represent over 44% of money that’s been wagered on the national championship at DraftKings since lines opened nearly a year ago.
