A new Texas sports betting forecast continues to show the potential of the massive market, potentially the largest online sports betting jurisdiction.
Eilers & Krejcik updated its Texas sports betting forecast in October. It projected a mature handle of $32.1 billion, a 43% increase in its five-year revenue projection compared to a 2023 report. The Texas Sports Betting Alliance commissioned both reports.
“That increase is due to very strong growth in the underlying comparable market data we used to power our model — including data from newer, populous markets like Ohio and Maryland, which are ramping up much faster than older markets,” the report reads.
Texas sports betting findings
Along with the $32 billion in handle, the report estimates that mature Texas sportsbooks could generate $3.68 billion in gross gaming revenue. Because of the state’s potential, Eilers & Krejcik believes sportsbooks would invest heavily, and an initial ramp-up would finish in the third year.
The report used a 15% tax rate in its projections. With promo deductions and federal taxes, Eilers & Krejcik projects the state could bring in more than $360 million annually once the market matures.
Eilers & Krejcik also believes a thriving illegal market already exists, potentially to the tune of $7.16 billion.
Methodology for Texas study
Eilers & Krejcik based its economic projections on 2023’s House Bill 1942, which passed the House before dying in the Senate. That legislation would have allowed for online sports betting in Texas with up to 15 sports betting brands.
The report also did not include any restrictions, such as a ban on college sports betting.
It used “suitably comparable jurisdictions” for revenue-per-adult data, like New Jersey and Arizona. It also considered the recent “very rapid ramp up” of markets like Kansas, Maryland, New York, and Ohio, as well as Tennessee, which is an online-only market.
Old Texas report
In its previous report, Eilers & Krejcik estimated Texas would generate $2.37 billion in gross sports betting revenue.
“The difference is mainly due to very strong, ongoing growth in the underlying gross gaming revenue-per-adult data we used to generate our forecasts,” the report reads. “For instance, New Jersey, a relatively mature market that opened in 2018, saw its nation-leading online sports betting GGR-per-adult value increase by 30% in the 12 months through June 2024.”
It also said the 2023 legislation “would create near ideal conditions to maximize market size.”
Nuances in legislation
Eilers & Krejcik also broke down how various policy decisions could affect the handle.
If Texas lawmakers ban college prop bets, the overall handle would decrease by nearly 25%. Similarly, a ban on betting on Texas college home teams would result in a 7.5% handle decrease.
The report advocates for strong responsible gambling provisions as well as key advertising provisions.
2025 Texas sports betting long shot
While the House passed sports betting legislation in 2023, the Senate remains a roadblock unlikely to budge. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads the Senate and has been a vocal opponent of sports betting and gambling.
“I think it’s in the same spot it was. The same challenges exist, which is a resistant Senate, led by the lieutenant governor,” Dallas Stars President Brad Alberts told LSR earlier this year. “And I don’t think that that has changed.
“Obviously, those same personalities are still in office. I think the momentum of last session, getting it through the House is positive. But you still have to get it through the Senate.”
While legalization will likely have to wait until at least 2027, in September GeoComply found 105,000 active user accounts attempting to access legal sportsbooks in other states. That was up 57% from September 2023.
