The Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Cleveland Browns in a divisional matchup this Thursday to kick off Week 12 of NFL betting.
According to NFL betting odds from bet365, four of the five players most likely to find the end zone on Thursday Night Football are Steelers (odds subject to change before kickoff).
Thursday Night Football anytime touchdown odds
Najee Harris
Najee Harris has the shortest odds of any player to score on Thursday night.
Pittsburgh’s lead running back has only scored a touchdown three times this season, but things could be shaping up for him to get more opportunities this week.
At least one running back has scored in 10 out of 11 Thursday Night Football games this season, and Pittsburgh is second in the league in rushing attempts. Meanwhile, the forecast for Thursday evening projects run-heavy conditions at 38 degrees with 25-mile-per-hour winds and a 70% chance of rain.
The Cleveland Browns have given up the fourth-most rushing touchdowns per game to opponents this year and the most rushing touchdowns over the last three games.
As far as opportunities go, Harris ranks sixth in the league in red zone carries this season. He’s handled the rock on 81.8% of Pittsburgh’s runs inside the 5-yard line, and over the past four weeks, he’s taken 100% of those carries, scoring once in Week 10 against Washington.
Harris has scored four times in six career games against Cleveland.
George Pickens
George Pickens has the next shortest odds of any player to score a touchdown, despite non-friendly passing conditions.
Pickens has found the end zone twice in four weeks since Russell Wilson became Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback. That’s a 50% hit rate vs. the zero times he cashed an anytime touchdown bet in seven weeks with Justin Fields as the starter.
Since Wilson took over, Pickens is tied for 11th among all wide receivers in red zone targets with four.
Wilson has thrown 20 touchdowns in his 13 career Thursday Night Football games.
Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb is the only Brown in the top 5.
He has only found the end zone once in his four games this season since returning from a devastating knee injury. The last time he played on a Thursday night, Week 3 in 2022, he scored a touchdown, coincidentally against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Since his return, Chubb has taken the lion’s share of carries, pushing fellow Cleveland running back Jerome Ford into fantasy irrelevance. He faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed five rushing touchdowns over its last three games, tied for fourth most in the league.
That, along with the iffy weather conditions, could help Chubb find his way to the end zone once again in this matchup.
Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth is tied with nine other players for the fifth-most touchdowns by a tight end this season with three. Each of those came in the red zone, where he has a flawless seven catches on seven targets, which is tied for the fifth-most among all tight ends.
He’s caught a touchdown just once in three career Thursday Night Football games.
Should this line close below +340, it will be the lowest his anytime touchdown odds have closed at all season.
Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren has not scored a touchdown all season as he’s dealt with injuries. His last touchdown came against the Seahawks in Week 17 last year.
Still, a positive game script — due to weather conditions and the opponent — likely factors into his lowest anytime touchdown odds of the season.
While Harris far out-paces Warren in red zone carries, Warren’s drawn 60% of the team’s targets to running backs in the red zone.
