While the entire world will be watching the results of the US presidential election on Tuesday, the sports betting industry has plenty at stake.
Multiple US sports betting markets will see consequential elections with results that could alter the industry.
Among those races is a ballot question to legalize Missouri sports betting and the composition of the Minnesota government, which could impact future discussions of sports betting. There is also a question on the ballot in Colorado that could increase the state’s tax haul.
Missouri sports betting initiative
The most visible sports betting item on the ballot is Amendment 2 in Missouri. The question would legalize online and in-person sports betting in the Show-Me State. The state’s professional sports teams led the initiative after multiple failures in the legislature.
DraftKings and FanDuel have funneled more than $40 million into the campaign behind the question, Winning for Missouri Education. While the campaign picked up dozens of political endorsements, Caesars is funding the opposition campaign, which includes a tie to an earlier lawsuit challenging the ballot question’s validity.
Missouri sports betting polling has regularly shown more than 50% of Missourians approve of the ballot initiative.
Colorado sports betting revenue
Coloradans will also vote on a question directly related to sports betting. Proposition JJ would remove an existing $29 million tax cap on sports betting revenue.
The question is a result of a 1992 constitutional amendment that caps tax dollars at the legislature’s projection. Colorado legislators began phasing out promo deductions in 2022, which has resulted in revenue surpassing the original $29 million tax projection in the last fiscal year.
If the question fails, the state must return a $900,000 excess to casinos and sportsbooks. If successful, new legislative projections suggest the state could generate an extra $2.5 million in 2025-26.
Minnesota legislature makeup
Minnesota has been a leading candidate to legalize sports betting in the past two legislative sessions. However, political differences in a preferred model have held up final passage.
The Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party controls the House, Senate and governor’s mansion, and the party hopes to give exclusivity to the state’s tribes. However, because of opponents on both sides of the aisle, the DFL and Republican proponents need to compromise.
Gov. Tim Walz is on the presidential ticket as Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate. While the House is already set for a shakeup, a Harris win would also provide a major shift in the state Senate.
Big change possible in Minnesota
If Walz becomes vice president, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan would succeed him, and Senate President Bobby Joe Champion would take her role. While Champion’s seat would remain DFL, at least one is up for grabs in the chamber that had 34-33 DFL majority.
A special election will decide the fate of Senate District 45, which became vacant when Sen. Kelly Morrison (D) stepped down to focus on a US congressional race. There is also the complicated situation of Sen. Nicole Mitchell (D), who could be forced out of the Senate as she faces felony charges from earlier this spring in connection with breaking into her stepmom’s house. If Mitchell is ousted, a special election will be held to replace her, albeit after November.
Meanwhile, all 134 House seats are up for grabs in November, and Rep. John Huot (D) expects the DFL to keep a slight majority. As a self-defined moderate, he expects a progressive push from the DFL should Flanagan take the reins of the state party, which could cause a potential Republican swing in 2026.
Urgency in Minnesota
Huot said the tribes want to work with the DFL Party to control sports betting. If the Republicans manage to retake control of the Minnesota government this year or in 2026, Huot said the tribes could simply launch sports betting.
That, however, opens up the Republicans legalizing sports betting for card rooms and horse racing tracks in the state. The tribes, who view the Walz era as their best chance at controlling the industry, want to pass the issue before Republicans retake the legislature, Huot said.
“I just don’t think they’ll let this go while we have control,” he said. “They’ll be at the speaker’s door and the president’s door saying we want to move on this.”
Ultimately, however, passage is tough with strong opposition still in the legislature no matter who is in control. DFL Sen. Erin Maye Quade recently told LSR that sports betting is not a priority on either party platform, and bipartisan, bicameral opposition will remain.
Other sports betting markets
The election could also be consequential in multiple other US markets. States like Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina will also continue to discuss sports betting legislation, although it is unlikely their legislative makeups will significantly alter the arguments in those jurisdictions.
State-level legislative makeup, however, could change how legislatures feel about various aspects of the market, including tax rates, which have begun to shift in markets like Illinois and Ohio. Tax rate adjustments, and potentially other regulatory changes, are something many industry sources are concerned about moving forward.
Any changes could also shift the discussion of online casino gambling legalization, which has progressed at a slower rate than many industry stakeholders had hoped.
