Heisman Trophy candidate Nico Iamaleava and the No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers (4-0) will be looking for a road win at the Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2) in NCAA football action this Saturday. Kickoff for this SEC matchup will be at 7:30 p.m. ET, with ESPN on the broadcast.
Tennessee is a 13.5-point favorite on the spread in college football Week 6 odds, with Arkansas getting +390 odds on the moneyline. The over/under line opened at 60 points and is down to 58.5 at some books.
After a red-hot start, Iamaleava cooled off with 194 passing yards and a touchdown in a 25-15 win at Oklahoma two weeks ago. The Volunteers will host Florida and No. 1 Alabama over the next two weeks after this road game. Tennessee’s left tackle, Lance Heard, is expected to return after a two-game absence, and right tackle John Campbell is expected to play after departing the Oklahoma game with an injury.
Arkansas has ruled out several players ahead of this matchup, including tailback Rodney Hill, receiver Khafre Brown, and cornerback Jaylon Braxton. The team has listed tight end Andreas Paaske as doubtful, and tight ends Tyrus Washington and Luke Hasz are also questionable for the Razorbacks.
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Tennessee vs. Arkansas State player prop tool
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Player props for Tennessee vs. Arkansas
How Nico Iamaleava could get over 252.5 passing yards
While Oklahoma slowed the Volunteers, Tennessee still ranks first in points per game (54) and third in yards per game (565.8) so far this season, with Iamaleava averaging a hefty 10 yards per attempt, the ninth-highest mark in FBS. Those numbers have come despite Tennessee running at the fifth-highest frequency (67.4%) due to positive game scripts in some blowouts.
Arkansas has been solid against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, so opponents are throwing on over 53% of plays against the Razorbacks. For Arkansas, cornerback Jaylen Braxton and safety Miguel Mitchell have been ruled out, and safety Hudson Clark could be headed for another game-time decision. Iamaleava could potentially capitalize against a banged-up secondary.
How Nico Iamaleava could get under 252.5 passing yards
Another blowout win could be in the cards here, which would significantly limit Iamaleava’s passing. He completed 16 of 23 passes for 211 yards in a 51-10 win at NC State in Week 2 and only attempted 21 passes while the Volunteers called 41 run plays in a closer win at Oklahoma.
Tennessee’s defense is so good — ranking first nationally in fewest opponent yards per play (3.1) and third in opponent third-down conversion rate (20.5%) — that Arkansas may have trouble putting points on the board. Dylan Sampson is projected for 91.5 rushing yards at some books, indicating Tennessee could employ another run-heavy attack.
How Taylen Green could get over 194.5 passing yards
Can Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green match points and keep the Razorbacks in this game? Green has stepped up in two matchups against ranked opponents this season, passing for a career-high 416 yards at Oklahoma State and reaching 279 yards in a 21-17 loss to Texas A&M last week.
Passing volume has gone up significantly for the 6-foot-6 junior with Arkansas after he averaged 16.3 attempts last year with Boise State. Andrew Armstrong has been able to get open against top defenses, dating back to last season when he averaged 62.5 receiving yards per game against ranked opponents. The Tennessee run defense is virtually impenetrable, as it allows the second lowest yards per carry (1.6) in FBS, so Green could be dropping back all night.
How Taylen Green could get under 194.5 passing yards
Tennessee’s defense is great everywhere, including in the secondary. The Volunteers are allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (125.3) this season. Oklahoma went 4-for-18 on third and fourth downs against that stifling defense, so it may be hard for Green to sustain drives.
Arkansas could still try to establish the run against Tennessee’s fearsome front, and the Razorbacks could have success using Green as a read-option quarterback, an approach he’s familiar with from his time at Boise State. Both teams could keep the ball on the ground in an effort to control the clock, limiting the passing output for both quarterbacks in this SEC bout.