UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley has gone from underdog to favorite in his title fight against challenger Merab Dvalishvili on Saturday at Sphere in Las Vegas, but there have also been some swings in the prop bet markets for the UFC 306 main event.
O’Malley’s striking prowess early in a fight has betting lines favoring him in a short night, but Dvalishvili’s relentless attack and excellent cardio have odds leaning his way in any fight that goes to a decision. Below, we’ll take a closer look at some of the top UFC 306 prop bet options for the main event.
UFC 306 main event prop bet odds
How Sean O’Malley via KO/TKO/DQ (+125) could hit
O’Malley’s easiest path to victory in this fight is to keep it standing and fight Dvalishvili at range. He’s the taller, longer fighter, and he has significant striking advantages. O’Malley also has good power at 135 pounds, and Dvalishvili has looked vulnerable on the feet in recent fights.
If O’Malley can fend off the early takedowns or get to Dvalishvili with punches on the way in, as he did when he took the belt from Aljamain Sterling last year, he has a real chance to stop the challenger with a few well-placed strikes.
How Merab Dvalishvili via KO/TKO/DQ (+700) could hit
The challenger is always an aggressive fighter who gets right in opponents’ faces. He rarely takes a backward step and doesn’t mind eating a punch or two in order to get inside and work.
If Dvalishvili can get O’Malley down consistently and wear away at him, the damage and fatigue could start to add up in the later rounds. Dvalishvili isn’t known for tremendous punching power, but he never stops attacking, and there’s always a chance that the constant pressure could break the champion late in the fight.
How Sean O’Malley via decision (+450) could hit
O’Malley’s specialty is striking — not submissions. Dvalishvili has never been finished by strikes in his entire professional career. Of his four losses, three came via decision, with one coming via submission.
Even if O’Malley easily batters him on the feet, as he did in his last title defense against “Chito” Vera, there’s no guarantee he’ll put the challenger away. Dvalishvili’s toughness hasn’t ever been a question, and his chin has been solid throughout his time in the UFC. For O’Malley, playing it safe might mean keeping it at long range but never going all out in search of a knockout finish.
How Merab Dvalishvili via decision (+175) could hit
Dvalishvili brings a 10-fight winning streak into this title bout, and almost all of those victories have looked more or less the same. Regardless of his opponent’s strengths or weaknesses, Dvalishvili comes forward, looks for takedowns, controls the clinch game against the fence, and tries to chip away with short strikes in close while wearing fighters down.
This has been a successful strategy for him. Dvalishvili never seems to get tired, and he’s an excellent wrestler. It also doesn’t lead to many victories inside the distance, as demonstrated by the nine decision wins during his 10-fight streak. Here, he will have two extra rounds to work, due to it being a main event title fight, but he’s still not a fighter whose game is built around finishing.
How Sean O’Malley to win in Round 1 (+450) or Round 2 (+750) could hit
Oddsmakers think the most likely rounds for an O’Malley victory are the early ones, and with good reason. Of the UFC fights he’s won inside the distance, all but two have come in either the first or second round. Typically, opponents who can stand up to his striking game into the third round will make it to see the final horn.
How Merab Dvalishvili to win in Round 4 (+3500) or Round 5 (+4000) could hit
Every round prop for Dvalishvili has long odds, suggesting that oddsmakers don’t give him a great chance of winning inside the distance. But if he is going to get it done, there may be reason to think it will come in the later rounds as the result of accumulating damage rather than early on as one big shot.
Dvalishvili’s offense is based on wrestling and pace. O’Malley may be able to handle that in the early rounds, but if he can’t stop Dvalishvili’s takedowns, he’s likely to only fall further behind in the wrestling game as the fight wears on and fatigue sets in.
How to watch UFC 306
- Early prelims: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass
- Prelims: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN+/ESPNews
- Main card: 10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ pay-per-view
