UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley may have opened as a betting underdog for his title defense against Merab Dvalishvili in the main event of UFC 306, but as Saturday’s fight draws closer, it seems sports betting sites and oddsmakers have changed their minds.
O’Malley is now a -127 favorite in his second defense of the UFC 135-pound title. That’s after opening at +120 shortly after this fight was announced as the headliner for UFC 306 at Sphere in Las Vegas on Sept. 14. Dvalishvili was once as high as a -200 favorite but has since become a slight underdog at +115.
Some of that line movement is likely due to O’Malley’s popularity with fans. Dvalishvili is well-known to hardcore MMA fans, having won 10 straight fights in the UFC to get to this point, but O’Malley is the one with a large fan base eager to jump on any chance to bet on him at underdog odds.
It’s also possible that the outlook on the fight shifted somewhat after Dvalishvili posted a video to social media showing himself receiving stitches to close a cut over his eye less than a month out from the fight. The cut was the result of a training accident, according to Dvalishvili, and it isn’t expected to affect his ability to get cleared to fight.
Still, with less than a month to heal, the cut is still visible and could very easily open in the fight. It’s also in a tricky spot on Dvalishvili’s eyelid, where even a small amount of blood early in a fight could impede his vision and make it hard to see O’Malley’s punches coming.
UFC 306 co-main event sees another odds switch
The co-main event at UFC 306 is a women’s flyweight title fight between current champion Alexa Grasso and longtime former champ Valentina Shevchenko. It’s the third meeting between these women, but the first time Grasso has opened as the favorite for a fight with Shevchenko.
Grasso is currently -135, with Shevchenko a +116 underdog. This is the first time in eight years that Shevchenko has gone into a UFC fight as the underdog. That includes last year’s rematch with Grasso, which ended in a draw.
Grasso shocked the MMA world with a submission win in the first fight between the two to claim the 125-pound belt, but many people thought Shevchenko deserved to win the decision in the second meeting. This trilogy bout is meant to settle the matter once and for all, and as the UFC’s lone Mexican champion, Grasso will likely enjoy plenty of crowd support at this “Noche UFC” event meant to celebrate Mexican Independence Day.
Full UFC 306 odds and fight card
How to watch UFC 306
- Early prelims: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass
- Prelims: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN+/ESPNews
- Main card: 10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ pay-per-view
