Golf’s final major of the season takes place this week. The world’s best golfers will be over in Scotland for the 2024 British Open, which will tee off Thursday at Royal Troon.
As has been the case for many tournaments this season, Scottie Scheffler is the top favorite to win it all. That said, the recent history of this event has demonstrated that favorites are far from a lock.
If we look back to last year’s edition, Brian Harman was well down the list of pre-tournament favorites. Not only did he win, but he outpaced the second-place finishers by six strokes. While it’s hard to picture a longshot winning it all once again, it’s not an unrealistic scenario.
Scheffler favored, but do any longshots have a chance?
There will be over 150 golfers in the field at Royal Troon Golf Course this week. Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite in British Open odds. According to BetMGM Sportsbook, he has attracted the highest ticket and handle percentage at BetMGM for the event.
He also stands as the sportsbook’s biggest liability in advance of the event. As we count down to the first tee, just six of the participants have golf odds of +2000 or less to win. That leaves plenty of long shots at top golf betting sites.
Brian Harman
Harman was the surprising winner of the 2023 British Open, which took place at Royal Liverpool Golf Club in England. He carded a -13, well ahead of a quartet of golfers who finished in a tie for second at -7. Now 13th in the Official World Golf Ranking, Harman has notched a tie for second place at The Players Championship so far in 2024.
Jordan Spieth
Spieth won the 2017 British Open, which was at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in England. For his last five appearances at this event, he has finished in a tie for ninth or better three times, including a second-place finish in 2021. Spieth has slipped to 36th in the OWGR, missing the cut in six of his 19 events in 2024.
Tiger Woods
A sentimental favorite whenever he’s set to play, Woods is preparing to be in this week’s field. He has won this event three times, most recently in 2008. At this stage of his career, he’s only making sporadic appearances. He finished 60th at the Masters and missed the cut at both the PGA Championship and US Open.
Harman was 125-1 to win the 2023 British Open
Looking back to last year’s British Open, McIlroy was a slight pre-tournament favorite to win it all at odds of +650, with Scheffler (+700) right behind him. Harman was well down the list at +12500, meaning oddsmakers didn’t view him as a realistic threat.
He proceeded to shoot a -4 for round one, leaving him in a tie for fourth place. His strong play continued on day two. He surged into first place with a -6 for a total score of -10, leaving him five strokes ahead of second place.
Harman did not cede the lead the rest of the way. He maintained a five-stroke advantage at the end of round three and cruised to victory on the final day. Harman finished at -13, six strokes ahead of four second-place finishers, and pocketed the $3 million top prize.
Pre-tournament favorite McIlroy finished in a tie for sixth, and Scheffler had to settle for a tie for 23rd. Beyond Harman at the top, the final order of finish at the 2023 British Open featured a number of surprises.
Several longshots on last year’s leaderboard
In advance of last season’s British Open, just six golfers had pre-tournament odds to win of +2000 or less. Only two members of that group landed in the top 10 when all was said and done. Harman was far from the only surprise among the 12 names among the top 10. Nine had odds to win of +4000 or greater, and five were at +12500 or more.
Place | Golfer | To-par score | Pre-tournament odds |
1 | Brian Harman | -13 | +12500 |
T2 | Jason Day | -7 | +9000 |
T2 | Tom Kim | -7 | +4000 |
T2 | Jon Rahm | -7 | +1200 |
T2 | Sepp Straka | -7 | +18000 |
T6 | Emiliano Grillo | -6 | +30000 |
T6 | Rory McIlroy | -6 | +650 |
T8 | Shubhankar Sharma | -5 | +150000 |
T8 | Cameron Young | -5 | +5000 |
T10 | Tommy Fleetwood | -4 | +2200 |
T10 | Max Homa | -4 | +5000 |
T10 | Matthew Jordan | -4 | +20000 |
Are favorites the safer bet?
The results of a single event could be nothing more than an outlier. To gain a better sense of how favorites have fared at the British Open in recent times, we need to examine the results over a longer time frame.
2022 British Open
- Pre-tournament favorites
- Rory McIlroy, +900
- Xander Schauffele, +1400
- Jon Rahm, +1400
Cameron Smith won with a score of -20, a stroke better than Cameron Young. Both were among the top 30 in pre-tourney odds, with Smith at +2500 and Young at +8000. McIlroy was the top finisher among the favorites, finishing in third place, followed by Schauffele (T15) and Rahm (T34).
2021 British Open
- Pre-tournament favorites
- Jon Rahm, +700
- Bryson DeChambeau, +1400
- Dustin Johnson, +1500
Collin Morikawa shot a -15 to win after entering with odds of +4000. Spieth (+2000) finished second at -13. Rahm (T3) and Johnson (T8) hit the top 10, with DeChambeau (T33) further down the board. Dylan Fritteli (+25000) was among the top surprises on the final leaderboard, with a fifth-place finish.
2019 British Open
- Pre-tournament favorites
- Rory McIlroy, +800
- Brooks Koepka, +1000
- Dustin Johnson, +1000
The 2020 British Open was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the 2019 edition, Shane Lowry was the surprising winner, finishing at -15 after entering the tournament at odds of +8000. Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) was alone in second place at -9. Koepka (T4) led the favorites, with Johnson (T51) and McIlroy (CUT) finishing well off the pace.
Looking back at British Open underdogs
Over the last 14 editions of the British Open, half have had a longshot winner with odds of +4000 or greater to win it all.
- 2012: Ernie Els (+4000)
- 2015: Zach Johnson (+8000)
- 2019: Shane Lowry (+8000)
- 2009: Stewart Cink (+12500)
- 2023: Brian Harman (+12500)
- 2011: Darren Clarke (+15000)
- 2010: Louis Oosthuizen (+20000)
The last time the British Open took place at Royal Troon, Henrik Stenson won with a score of -20, entering with odds of +3000. He was tied for ninth in pre-tourney odds, making him a slight surprise but not exactly a massive longshot.