Undefeated UFC bantamweight Payton Talbott could make history at UFC 303 on Saturday night in Las Vegas with the single biggest odds shift in UFC history.
Talbott (8-0) opened as a relatively modest -298 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook shortly after his prelim bout against Yanis Ghemmouri (12-2) was signed. Three days before the event, Talbott is currently a at DraftKings, which, as the official sportsbook and daily fantasy partner of the UFC, often is the first online sportsbook to post UFC odds.
According to BestFightOdds.com, DraftKings offered the lowest opening line on Talbott in May. BetMGM Sportsbook, for instance, did not offer a line on this fight until earlier this month, with Talbott opening there at -1000. Today, Talbott is currently listed as a favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook.
That line still would not make Talbott the biggest favorite in UFC history. That honor was recently captured by former NCAA national champion wrestler Bo Nickal, who opened as a -2500 favorite for his fight at UFC 290 and closed slightly lower. Still, according to Legal Sports Report analysis, no fighter in the modern history of the UFC has seen a greater line movement than Talbott, who’s entering just his third fight with the UFC on Saturday.
Who is Payton Talbott?
Talbott is still a young fighter at 25, with less than three full years as a professional, but already he’s drawn plenty of attention. Born in Las Vegas and currently fighting out of Reno, Nevada, he found his way to the UFC with a decision victory in Dana White’s Contender Series in 2023. Since then he’s fought twice in the UFC, finishing both fights — the first via submission, the second via TKO.
Ghemmouri, his opponent at UFC 303, is coming off his first loss in the UFC. He hasn’t competed since that TKO defeat in September 2023 and comes in as a +950 underdog at BetMGM.
If he were to win, Ghemmouri would join the list of biggest upsets in UFC history, tying Shana Dobson, who was a +950 underdog when she beat Mariya Agapova at a UFC Fight Night event in 2020.
Biggest UFC favorites
While some MMA promotions have a habit of staging apparent mismatches with wide disparities in the betting odds, the UFC tends to put on more competitive fights in which the odds are relatively close.
Any betting line more lopsided than -500 is relatively rare, especially on a pay-per-view event like UFC 303. For comparison, the next biggest favorite at UFC 303 after Talbott is Joe Pyfer, who is a -300 favorite against Marc-Andre Barriault.
Here are some other sizable betting favorites in UFC history:
| Favorite | Underdog | Result | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal (-2500) | Val Woodburn (+1200) | Nickal via TKO, RD 1 | UFC 290, July 8, 2023 |
| Ronda Rousey (-1700) | Bethe Correia (+1000) | Rousey via KO, RD 1 | UFC 190, Aug. 1, 2015 |
| Paige VanZant (-1600) | Alex Chambers (+900) | VanZant via submission, RD 3 | UFC 191, Sept. 5, 2015 |
| Chad Mendes (-1650) | Yaotzin Meza (+1025) | Mendes via TKO, RD 1 | UFC on FX 6, Dec. 14, 2012 |
How to watch UFC 303
- Date: Saturday, June 29
- Early prelims: 6 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN+
- Prelims: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN+
- Main card: 10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ pay-per-view
