France is a heavy favorite (-350) to beat Poland when the teams meet for Euro 2024 action at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund on Tuesday. Les Bleus picked up a 3-1 victory over Poland at the 2022 World Cup, so they could have a psychological edge.
They are also 24 places above Poland in the FIFA world rankings, which suggests a gulf in class between these teams.
However, Poland (+1100) has a reliable goalkeeper, a relatively solid defense, a combative midfield, quick wingers, and a world-class striker in Robert Lewandowski. France cannot afford to take this game lightly, as Lewandowski has the quality to punish any slipups.
That means French center-backs William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano will need to keep their wits about them as they seek to guide their team to victory on Tuesday. Euro 2024 betting lines and additional relevant information are below.
France vs. Poland live odds & lines
France vs. Poland player props
Antoine Griezmann
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Robert Lewandowski
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France might have to target Poland’s right flank to win
France’s forwards ruthlessly exposed Poland’s right flank when the teams met in the knockout stage of the 2022 World Cup. All three of their goals came from that side of the pitch. Kylian Mbappé set up Olivier Giroud to open the scoring on the stroke of halftime, and Mbappé then fired in two goals after the break to seal the victory.
Polish right-back Matty Cash had a torrid afternoon, as Mbappé ran him ragged. The Poles have adopted a different formation at Euro 2024, with Jan Bednarek playing on the right of a back three and Przemyslaw Frankowski deployed as a right wing-back. However, they are not the quickest defenders, so Les Bleus are likely to target the right side of the Polish defense once again on Tuesday, and they could close out another victory if they succeed.
Poland’s path to victory likely includes Robert Lewandowski
Poland manager Michal Probierz recently described Lewandowski as “the best player in the world.” The Barcelona striker certainly has the silverware to back up those claims. He has been on teams that have won eight Bundesliga titles, the Champions League, and La Liga, among many other trophies during his career. Lewandowski has also set many individual records, and he is Poland’s all-time leading goalscorer by a wide margin.
He was on target in Poland’s last game against France, but he could not prevent his team from losing that match. Lewandowski will provide Poland’s main goal threat once again on Tuesday, and his teammates will try to get the ball to him as often as possible. Les Bleus are likely to dominate possession, so Poland’s players will need to be quick and sharp on the counterattack, whipping in crosses for Lewandowski to attack whenever they get the chance.
France expected starting 11
Mike Maignan will start in goal for France on Tuesday. Jules Koundé is firmly established as Les Bleus’ first-choice right-back, and Theo Hernández has been preferred to Ferland Mendy at left-back. William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano will play as center-backs, with N’Golo Kante and Adrien Rabiot shielding the defense in midfield.
Kylian Mbappé suffered a broken nose in France’s 1-0 win against Austria on Matchday 1, but he is available to start in attack. He could be joined by Antoine Griezmann, Marcus Thuram, and Ousmane Dembélé, although Olivier Giroud is also vying for a starting berth. If manager Didier Deschamps wants to change his starting XI, Real Madrid midfielders Eduardo Camavinga and Aurélien Tchouaméni are available, along with PSG forward Randal Kolo Muani.
Poland expected starting 11
Juventus goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny will start between the sticks for Poland. The Poles are expected to play Jakub Kiwior, Bartosz Salamon, and Jan Bednarek as a back three, with Roma’s Nicola Zalewski and Lens midfielder Przemyslaw Frankowski playing as wing-backs.
Piotr Zieliński, Bartosz Slisz, and Jakub Piotrowski could form a midfield trio, although Taras Romanczuk and Damian Szymański are available. Lewandowski was not fit enough to start against Austria on Matchday 2, as he is just coming back from an injury, but he should be ready to lead the line in attack, with Adam Buksa or Krzysztof Piatek supporting him.
