2024 Belmont Stakes Betting: Longshot Horses, Analysis, And History

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2024 Belmont Stakes Betting: Longshot Horses, Analysis, & History

The Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the horse racing Triple Crown, is coming up on Saturday evening.

This year, the race will be at Saratoga Race Course, while the traditional home for Belmont Stakes betting is under construction. The race will also be 1 1/4 miles rather than its customary 1 1/2 miles.

A field of 10 horses is expected to go to the post at 6:41 p.m. ET on Saturday. The race features Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Preakness Stakes winner Seize the Grey. However, neither horse was the morning line favorite.

Sierra Leone, who finished second by a nose in the Kentucky Derby, is the 9-5 morning line favorite.

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Belmont Stakes longshots and analysis

Resilience, 10-1

Resilience faded to finish sixth in the Kentucky Derby after hitting the top of the stretch near the lead. He was not far off the Derby pacesetters and still managed to finish in the top half of the field. Trainer Bill Mott gave Resilience two workouts after the Derby to prepare him for the Belmont Stakes. He covered a half-mile in 48 seconds in his most recent workout.

The Wine Steward, 15-1

The Wine Steward enters the Belmont Stakes off three consecutive second-place finishes. In six career starts, he has never finished worse than second and has never been beaten by more than 3/4 of a length. The Wine Steward’s father, Vino Rosso, finished fourth in the 2018 Belmont Stakes.

Antiquarian, 12-1

Antiquarian won the Peter Pan Stakes, the New York-based prep race for the Belmont Stakes. He beat rival The Wine Steward by less than a length. Antiquarian will have Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aboard for the Belmont Stakes. Velazquez has more wins at Saratoga than any other jockey in history.

Dornoch, 15-1

Dornoch is coming off a tenth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He did not have the best of trips and was never in contention for much of the race. Prior to the Derby, trainer Danny Gargan decided to change race tactics with Dornoch. Rather than put him on the lead, as he did in his three prior races, Gargan told jockey Luis Saez to run behind horses in the Blue Grass Stakes. Dornoch finished fourth, six and a half lengths behind Sierra Leone.

Protective, 20-1

Protective, one of three horses in the Belmont Stakes for trainer Todd Pletcher, is a maiden. He has yet to win a race in four career starts. He finished third at 38-1 in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in April and followed that up with another third-place finish in the Peter Pan Stakes behind Antiquarian and The Wine Steward. Protective gets Tyler Gaffalione aboard for the first time after Gaffalione lost the mount on Belmont Stakes favorite Sierra Leone.

Honor Marie, 12-1

Honor Marie enters the Belmont Stakes following an eighth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He was bumped hard on both sides immediately leaving the Derby starting gate. He was last at the top of the stretch in the Derby and was able to pass a dozen horses before the finish. With his late running style, Honor Marie projects to be near the back of the Belmont Stakes field throughout much of the race before doing his best running down the stretch.

Are longshots worth a wager?

Two notable Belmont Stakes longshots spoiled recent Triple Crown bids. Birdstone, at 36-1 odds, beat Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Smarty Jones at Belmont Park in 2004.

In 2002, Sarava won the Belmont Stakes at 70-1 odds. War Emblem, who was coming off wins in the Derby and Preakness, finished 10th.

Deciding on a Belmont Stakes wager takes research and forming your own opinion. Here are the final odds for recent winners.

Classic winners enter Belmont Stakes

Seize the Grey, 8-1

Seize the Grey comes into the Belmont Stakes off a front-running victory in the Preakness. No one threatened him that day as he led by two lengths from start to finish. While he is not up for traditional Triple Crown glory, Seize the Grey did win a race on Kentucky Derby Day. He took the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs on May 4.

Mystik Dan, 5-1

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan will break from post 3 in the Belmont Stakes. It is the same post from which he won the Kentucky Derby. Coming off a second-place finish in the Preakness Stakes, trainer Kenny McPeek was on the fence about entering Mystik Dan in the Belmont Stakes. However, with the horse’s energy levels up and good workouts, McPeek ultimately decided to have Mystik Dan compete in all three legs of horse racing’s Triple Crown.

Top Belmont Stakes betting choices

Sierra Leone, 9-5

Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone is the morning line favorite for Belmont Stakes betting. He has won three of his five career races and is mere inches away from being undefeated. Trainer Chad Brown made a rider switch leading into the Belmont Stakes, replacing Tyler Gaffalione with Flavien Prat. He will also change the type of bit in Sierra Leone’s mouth for Saturday’s Belmont. Brown believes the changes will help the horse focus more near the end of the race, where he tends to lean on other horses.

Mindframe, 7-2

The undefeated Mindframe enters the Belmont Stakes off an impressive seven-length victory on Kentucky Derby Day. This Belmont Stakes field will be the toughest competition he has faced in his young career. In a recent workout, Mindframe finished ahead of stablemate and Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness. Following that workout, trainer Todd Pletcher said Mindframe would enter the Belmont Stakes and Fierceness would be pointed elsewhere.

Belmont Stakes betting storylines

There are several interesting storylines leading into the 2024 Belmont Stakes.

Latest Belmont Stakes odds

Below is an up-to-date table of Belmont Stakes betting odds.

PositionHorseJockeyTrainerMorning line odds
1Seize the GreyJaime TorresD. Wayne Lukas8-1
2ResilienceJunior AlvaradoBill Mott10-1
3Mystik DanBrian Hernandez Jr.Kenny McPeek5-1
4The Wine StewardManny FrancoMike Maker15-1
5AntiquarianJohn VelazquezTodd Pletcher12-1
6DornochLuis SaezDanny Gargan15-1
7ProtectiveTyler GaffalioneTodd Pletcher20-1
8Honor MarieFlorent GerouxWhit Beckman12-1
9Sierra LeoneFlavien PratChad Brown9-5
10MindframeIrad Ortiz Jr.Todd Pletcher7-2
Photo by Associated Press