- Sports Betting
- US Betting
- Daily Fantasy Sports
But we’ll give you five anyway. (And here are five more, for good measure.)
The future of sports betting in the United States will be determined on a single day this spring.
A verdict in Christie vs. NCAA — the case in which New Jersey is trying to legalize sports wagering — could come as soon as January, but is likely to come in March or later. Oral arguments took place in December, and by all accounts, things went well for the NJ side of things. Many believe a majority of justices will side with the state over the leagues that are litigants on the other side, including the NFL, the NBA, the NHL and MLB.
New Jersey is arguing for the federal ban on sports wagering — the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act — to be struck down as unconstitutional. There are a multitude of possible outcomes, but the three most likely are:
All of those scenarios present interesting topics to watch in 2018, as well, especially the first one.
If PASPA is struck down, there will be no shortage of states trying to take advantage of the ability to offer sports gambling within their borders.
An expansion of sports wagering is likely to happen quickly in the US if NJ wins. We already have several states potentially ready to offer sports betting in the event of an NJ victory: Pennsylvania, New York and Delaware.
The list of other states that will give legalization and regulation a look in the new year seemingly grows by the day. Before and after the SCOTUS verdict, what these states will do will shape the immediate future of sports wagering in the US. The domino effect of PASPA being struck down would be a likely flood of states that legalize wagering in short order.
If New Jersey loses (or wins only narrowly, not on the full scope of PASPA), what the pro sports leagues do next is likely important.
While the NCAA and the pro sports leagues are fighting New Jersey, not all of them have the same vision for sports betting in the US:
If New Jersey wins, the leagues will be scrambling to come up with a PR strategy, either separately or together. The leagues want to have a say in how sports wagering goes down in the US, after all, and they want to make such a rollout as beneficial to them as possible. The NCAA will probably be on an island apart from those efforts.
If New Jersey loses, what do the leagues do? That would be interesting to see, as well. For instance, will the NBA continue to actively lobby for Congressional action, or will it pull back with the threat of a New Jersey victory in its rear-view mirror?
Regardless, the tack the leagues take with regards to sports wagering will be one of the most interesting stories in the space next year.
Let’s start here: DraftKings and FanDuel are not going to continue in the DFS industry as they are into perpetuity. A merger fell through last year and isn’t coming back. DraftKings has made no secret that it eventually wants an IPO.
FanDuel has not been as overt about what it wants, but it’s also not a secret in the industry that it’s been shopped around. The departure of CEO Nigel Eccles and replacement by Matt King seems to point toward a potential sale.
Who would that buyer be? There a number of potential suitors:
How much will FanDuel sell for? Likely far less than the valuation of over a billion dollars it once enjoyed in the heady days of 2015.
Will it sell? If I were setting a line, FanDuel being sold sometime in 2018 would be a favorite.
The legislative victories in the DFS industry have been nothing short of amazing. Eighteen states have now declared paid-entry fantasy sports to be a game of skill, apart from gaming laws (19 if you count Connecticut).
However, the road ahead is certainly going to get tougher. While there likely will be victories in 2018 for DFS, the industry is likely looking for quality over quantity. There are several key states where legal clarity remains important:
Turning one of these states into a friendly environment for DFS will likely be the focus of lobbying efforts this year.