While 2024 may not have been the busiest year in terms of sports betting news, plenty happened to make it a standout year in its own right.
The year saw regulators addressing competition for regulated operators, both old competitors from offshore and new competitors in the sweepstakes market. It saw the top sportsbook in the United States, FanDuel, hit the US markets when its parent company Flutter launched its New York listing.
Some of the stories were great for the market, like more efficient customer acquisition costs and older state cohorts still showing material growth. Others, like the multiple illegal sports betting stories, left a stain that has proved difficult to remove.
The LSR team breaks down its best and worst stories from 2024 while offering predictions for what will command headlines in 2025.
Top sports betting story of the year
Eric Ramsey: Records were made to be broken, and sports betting broke them all in 2024. Nationwide handle is going to end up at around $150 billion this year, up ~20% to produce $13+ billion in gross sports betting revenue and almost $3 billion in taxes. New York alone is going to collect more than $1 billion in related tax revenue, an amount that seemed unfathomable when lawmakers first installed their heavy-handed framework a few years ago. Part of what makes this all possible is the operators’ collective 9.5% hold for the calendar year to date — also a record.
Matthew Waters: The gambling industry is always facing new entrants that want a piece of the pie. This year, sweepstakes reached a fever pitch not seen since the daily fantasy sports disruption.
Sweepstakes operators made headlines for various reasons in 2024. The bad ranged from cease-and-desists in multiple states and various lawsuits, but the launch of an industry trade group and tighter player protection requirements helped round the year out.
Pat Evans: Missouri sports betting. As new market launches have slowed to a snail’s pace, the ballot initiative seemed like a must-win for the industry. It faced a lawsuit and an interesting opposition campaign. Ultimately, it narrowly passed, and it will be the next US market to open to sportsbooks in the first half of 2025.
Sam McQuillan: Building on the success of same-game parlays, player props, and other narrative-focused bet types, the outcome and score of a major event like the Super Bowl are no longer critical to the profitability of sports betting operators. Even with the public cleaning up on traditional bets like the spread, moneyline, and total during this year’s Super Bowl, the biggest sportsbooks still had a strong day. Innovations in online gaming have reshaped sports betting into a fundamentally different business.
Worst topic in 2024 for sportsbooks
Eric: Lawyers. The NBA match-fixing scandal shoved FanDuel into the judicial spotlight for a while, attention that eventually moved onto DraftKings and Fanatics through their Hermalyn co-debacle in civil court. There have been significant proceedings involving the MLB Players Association, tribal compacts, commercial contracts, college athletes, and customers who’ve experienced gambling-related harm.
And just about everybody had to spend some time before the enforcement arm of the Massachusetts Gaming Commission, the de facto principal’s office for regulated sports betting. A good chunk of that revenue from 2024 has been used to pay the attorneys who work to put out these myriad legal and regulatory fires.
Matt: Operators used to think they were done with state legislatures after getting a bill passed. Now, after multiple states have tried to or successfully raised tax rates after approving a lower one in the initial legislation, operators know a higher tax rate discussion could happen in a few states.
Pat: Who knows how it plays out, but the federal attention the industry is beginning to attract probably is not great. It starts with the US Senate committee hearing. The negative news clips from that could continue to snowball the growing negative perception sports betting is garnering.
Sam: Whether they like it or not, licensed legal sportsbooks will continue to face competition from quasi-legal alternatives until a major governing body establishes clear, enforceable guidelines. There’s no indication that such rules are coming anytime soon.
From pick’em operators shifting to free-to-play models to sweepstakes sites, this gray-area market is expanding rapidly. Meanwhile, regulators and lawmakers are still struggling to fully grasp the complexities of the legal sports betting industry itself.
Most rational prediction for 2025
Eric: There will be no federal action on sports betting in 2025 — positive, negative, or otherwise. The temperature certainly seems to be rising in the room, but anyone who watched this week’s hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee can understand why congressional intervention seems like such a long shot. Our elected officials can’t even agree on funding the country’s essential operations, let alone come together on the comparatively minor issues facing the sports betting industry.
Matt: Hold rates will continue to grow. Between expanded betting menus and the continued growth of new customers in old states, there should still be room for operators to expand parlays as a percentage of handle at a decent pace.
Pat: From my legislative perch, I predict that two states will legalize in 2025. Maybe it is Minnesota and Georgia, two states that have been within striking distance in previous sessions. Could Oklahoma see the tribes and governor make amends? Perhaps Mississippi goes online, or Alabama decides to get into the gambling world. Or maybe the industry pops plenty of champagne as a miracle happens in Texas.
Sam: At least one operator will call it quits in 2025, probably more. If you’ve been taking the over every year on at least one operator exiting the sports betting space, you’ve been cashing in consistently, and the odds suggest the trend will continue. The number of new entrants — like Fanatics, bet365, and ESPN — has outpaced the growth of sports betting legalization, with no sizable new markets expected to open up anytime soon.
Whether it’s another brand selling its business like PointsBet or non-gambling brands realizing this business is too rich for their blood (looking at you, Fubo), at least one operator will bow out in 2025 — probably more. With FanDuel and DraftKings maintaining their dominance, the market’s smaller players should keep feeling the squeeze.
Wildest 2025 sports betting prediction
Eric: Fanatics will take control of third place among national sports betting brands. BetMGM holds that spot today, and any challenger would additionally have to leapfrog Caesars to get itself onto the podium. Fanatics is on the attack, though, already a contender for that third position in a few key markets like Illinois, Massachusetts, and New York. If it can exert more pressure elsewhere on the map, we might find ourselves reflecting on a bronze-medal performance behind FanDuel and DraftKings at the end of 2025.
Matt: My big swing for 2025 is that DraftKings and/or FanDuel will cut a deal with the Seminole Tribe to operate in Florida. We know there have been conversations between the largest two US sportsbooks and the Seminoles, which hold exclusive rights to offer sports betting through their Hard Rock Bet brand. Those talks do not mean anything in the grand scheme of things, but it still feels closer than California.
Pat: California tribes come together and figure out how to launch sports betting in 2025. How? No idea, but it would be fun to see.
Sam: Neither newcomers like bet365, nor newer-comers like Fanatics, nor old-comers operating new brands will claim third place among national sports betting brands in 2025. Instead, BetMGM will hold its position and widen the gap. Others may be on the attack, but BetMGM is already reaping the benefits of its tech investments, specifically Angstrom Sports, improving user retention and securing third place in downloads this NFL season.
With a strong grasp of the US market, backing from a major brand with physical properties and supportive shareholders, BetMGM is poised to keep making big moves. Expect it to build on its momentum and solidify its spot on the podium.
