key takeaways
- Overall Super Bowl betting in legal US markets will grow nearly 20% over last year.
- Super Bowl 58 host state Nevada projects to see the most money wagered at $170 million, followed by New York and New Jersey.
- More than 175 million adults now have access to a legal, regulated sports betting option in their home states.
Super Bowl betting is again poised to break its own single-game record for a sporting event in the United States.
LSR projects bettors across 39 regulated markets will wager $1.29 billion on this year’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers, up from last year’s estimated $1.08 billion to a new all-time high. Super Bowl betting volume nationwide has grown nearly tenfold since legal wagering first expanded beyond Nevada in 2018.
Depending on how those tickets settle, US sports betting operators stand to win north of $100 million on Super Bowl 58 to close the books on another stellar football season.
Super Bowl 58 betting stats, in context
More than 175 million adults now have access to legal Super Bowl betting in their home state, so splitting forecasted totals across the population yields a per-capita handle of about $7. That number continues to tick upward as adoption increases, betting menus expand, and customers become more familiar with props and in-play betting.
Limited granular data suggests that around 25% of Super Bowl handle will be rolled up in parlays, and roughly another 10% represents outstanding futures bets placed throughout the season.
For broader context, the Super Bowl typically represents between 0.75% and 1.25% of trailing 12-months handle for a given state, or about three to four typical days of volume. That percentage tends to skew higher in smaller markets and those with destination casino sportsbooks, like Mississippi and Louisiana.
Which state has the most Super Bowl betting?
New York might boast the biggest sports betting industry in the country, but it has yet to surpass Nevada in Super Bowl betting volume. Could this be the year it finally happens? New York’s market is more than twice as large and still growing, up almost 20% over the past 12 months.
Although Las Vegas remains the nation’s sports betting capital city — and the host for this year’s game — the Nevada market could be cooling amid continued expansion elsewhere. The fact that some Nevada sports betting apps require separate signup from their rest-of-country partners will make it more challenging for operators to capitalize on out-of-state visitors to Allegiant Stadium.
Our model has hosting duties padding the score in Nevada’s favor at around $170 million, possibly even challenging its own all-time record ($179.8 million, 2022.) New York’s second-place handle should grow to approach $140 million this year, while New Jersey figures to overperform once again to finish in third place around $115 million.
Host state Nevada flexes its drawing power
Flexing its ability to attract bettors for marquee events, Nevada’s Super Bowl forecast is meanwhile closer to 2% of its annual handle.
It is also worth mentioning that a relatively small number of big bettors can drastically affect these numbers. A small state like Iowa or West Virginia, for example, could dramatically overperform if it finds itself in the flight path of an elderly furniture tycoon with an unquenchable urge to gamble at the highest stakes for marketing purposes.
First legal Super Bowl bets in Florida
Florida’s outlook for Super Bowl 58 is tough to pin down. Our model has it in fourth place with a mix of low confidence and high optimism, right around $90 million in a crowded spot on the leaderboard.
On one hand, it is now the most-populous sports betting state on the map, with no legalized neighbors and a bulging winter population. On the other, it is a single-operator market where Hard Rock Bet has only had about two months to activate would-be Super Bowl customers. There is no data available to help provide an early sense of scale, with Florida sports betting still fresh off a December public launch.
It is reasonable to infer that it is already rising into the top tier of sports betting states, but it is impossible to know exactly where it ranks without hard numbers. Projecting Florida anywhere among the top 10 states seems plausible; it could even generate the most Super Bowl betting volume in the country despite its infancy and the limited implementation.
How will first-year states do on Super Bowl 58?
Florida is not the only newcomer padding the Super Bowl forecast this year.
Massachusetts sports betting was limited to just three retail locations in 2023, and the subsequent addition of online betting across the Commonwealth will have a meaningful impact on national totals for 2024.
Kentucky and Maine also opened their doors to online sports betting within the last year, while Vermont joined the party as the 38th legal state earlier this month. A handful of retail sportsbooks in Nebraska will also be taking their first in-person wagers on the Super Bowl in 2024.
North Carolina will not have online sports betting up and running before Super Bowl 58, but launch is finally scheduled to arrive in time to catch March Madness.
Growing competition for bettors
Some of the states that border these new markets will likely see a corresponding downturn in their own Super Bowl betting numbers as they deal with the increased competition in their neighborhood.
That is certainly the case for New Hampshire and Rhode Island, two overachievers that have historically benefited from nonresident regional bettors. The opening of Massachusetts will steal some volume back from the other New England markets this year, while Vermont and Maine will further affect New Hampshire’s bottom line.
Midwestern states that border Kentucky will also have to deal with a few lost bettors from its 2023 launch, most notably Indiana and Ohio. Speaking of Ohio, it rounds out the top five in our forecast at $88 million.
No legal Super Bowl betting in California, Texas
The two markets with the most to gain from Super Bowl betting, California and Texas, are still off the board in 2024. Both remain in political purgatory for the time being.
If it does finally open to legal operators, California will quickly become the largest market in the country. Competitive online sports betting in California could generate $300 million in wagers and $30 million of operator revenue from the Super Bowl annually. That is nearly twice as much as any other state, with a ceiling perhaps even higher in some years.
Texas is similarly unlikely to expand gambling in the immediate future, but the potential energy continues to build. Regulated online sports betting in Texas would generate at least $225 million in annual Super Bowl handle, and again likely even more in host years or those in which local teams are contenders.
Other highlights from Super Bowl betting map
The forecasted totals are mostly proportional to the regular performance of the individual markets that comprise them. Those that have grown over the past year should, on average, expect Super Bowl betting to increase too. Some states, however, have additional unique dynamics at play.
Growth in Pennsylvania over the past 12 months is mitigated by the fact that the Philadelphia Eagles failed to make it to the Super Bowl this time. The forecast for this year’s game is essentially flat from 2023’s number.
Losses for the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions in the conference championship round will similarly lower the ceiling for Maryland and Michigan, but growth trends in both states should produce small year-over-year gains in Super Bowl handle. Some extra traffic will meanwhile flow toward Kansas again because of Chiefs loyalty around the Missouri border.
Arizona, on the other hand, is likely to pull back despite showing double-digit growth in the most-recent quarter. It is difficult to know exactly how much Super Bowl 57 hosting duties boosted its betting volume in 2023, but some regression figures to follow an outsized performance estimate.
Methodology for LSR Super Bowl projections
Our forecast relies on historical data and estimates of betting volume across multiple timeframes. The model takes additional input from the past three Super Bowls and considers how those numbers typically compare to surrounding months and larger trends.
Not all states have historical data for us to rely on, so some are manually calculated using an index of other markets and their comparative per-capita performance.
