UFC 295 goes down at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Saturday, and top UFC sportsbooks have released prop bet odds for every fight on the card. In the main event, former UFC champions Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira will square off for the vacant UFC light heavyweight title, with oddsmakers expecting an early night. Prochazka opened at +500 odds to win in Round 1, while Pereira was at +430.
In the co-main event, Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich will fight for the UFC interim heavyweight title, with the odds anticipating the potential for a knockout finish. Aspinall opened at +220 odds to win by KO/TKO, while Pavlovich was at +125.
Full UFC 295 prop bet odds for the pay-per-view main card appear below:
UFC 295 prop bet odds
Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
Prochazka (29-3-1) is an aggressive action fighter almost to the point of recklessness at times, but his record of finishes speaks for itself. He’s only been to decision once, and that was in a two-round fight during the Rizin Openweight Grand Prix back in 2016. In 33 pro fights, Prochazka has recorded 25 wins via KO/TKO. Yet in his last fight for the UFC light heavyweight title, he surprised everyone by locking up a submission against jujitsu specialist Glover Teixeira — just the third submission win of Prochazka’s career. Prior to that, Prochazka hadn’t been out of the second round in his UFC tenure.
Pereira (8-2) has fought most of his MMA career one division down, at middleweight, and before that as a pro kickboxer. That’s why it’s no surprise that his success has depended heavily on his striking skills. Of his eight wins, six have come via KO/TKO. But it’s still unclear whether his knockout power will translate to light heavyweight, where he faces larger opponents than he did at middleweight. He went the three-round distance in his first light heavyweight bout in July and had some of his deficiencies in the ground game exposed. Here he likely feels that to win he has to stay upright and rely on his kickboxing.
Main event method-of-victory props
Main event round props
Tom Aspinall vs. Sergei Pavlovich
Aspinall (13-3) is an uncommon heavyweight not only because he has both size and athleticism, but also because he’s a threat both standing and on the mat. The bulk of his wins have come via KO/TKO, but half of his last four wins have come via submission. Most notable is that, whether he does it with striking or submissions, Aspinall’s fights don’t tend to last very long. He’s never been to a decision in his entire pro career and has only been out of the first round three times in 16 pro fights. In his three years in the UFC, all but one of Aspinall’s fights have ended in the first round, including the last four straight.
Pavlovich (18-1) is also a big man who can move, and he also has a knack for finishes. The difference is that the Russian doesn’t bother himself with submissions. Of his 18 wins, 15 have come via KO/TKO. He’s never submitted anyone, nor has he been submitted. He’s also yet to go past the first round in the UFC and hasn’t gone the distance in over six years.
Co-main event method-of-victory props
Co-main event round props
Mackenzie Dern vs. Jessica Andrade
Dern (13-3) made her reputation as a submission specialist but has tried to round out her game in recent years. That’s resulted in a string of decisions — five in her last six bouts — with her few finishes in the UFC mostly coming against lower competition early on. At her peak, Andrade (24-12) was a powerhouse finisher with a mostly even split between TKO wins and submissions. Those days are mostly gone now, and after three straight losses, she’s in desperate need of any win.
Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
Frevola (11-3-1) is an aggressive lightweight with three straight wins by TKO/KO in the UFC. As a New Yorker, he could be especially likely to fight in search of a finish to please the hometown fans. Saint-Denis (12-1) has notched four straight finishes since moving down from welterweight, with an even split between submissions and TKO/KO wins.
Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini
Lopes (22-6) has been a pro for basically his entire adult life, but he is relatively new to the UFC. Submissions account for slightly more than half his wins, and for a featherweight he’s seen relatively few decision outcomes. Sabatini (18-4) also favors submission finishes, with 11 of his 18 wins coming via tapout. His striking is still a work in progress, though, and he doesn’t like to depend on it.