The UFC is in its Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday for a UFC Fight Night card headlined by a lightweight bout between rising contender Grant Dawson and veteran battler Bobby Green. Dawson comes in as the heavy favorite at odds, while Green is a sizable underdog here at .
Below, we’ll take a closer look at betting odds for the entire UFC fight card, plus prop bets and analysis for Saturday’s main event.
UFC Fight Night main event odds
Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green
Total rounds: Over/under
Dawson (20-1-1) has moved steadily up the ranks since his UFC debut in 2019, dispatching gradually tougher competition with a grappling-heavy style that also produces a lot of finishes. He’s won two of his last three fights by submission, including against opponents with strong wrestling bases of their own, such as Olympic medalist Mark Madsen, whom Dawson submitted last year.
Green (30-14-1) is coming off a late submission win over Tony Ferguson this past summer, but before that he went three fights without a victory in the UFC. At 37, he’s on the older side for the lighter weight classes and nearly a decade older than Dawson. Green is known for his elusive boxing style — and for his constant trash talk throughout his fights — but it’s an approach that relies heavily on speed and reflexes. Once those start to decay with age, it can quickly become a game of diminishing returns.
Green has a better ground game than he often receives credit for, even if he mostly opts not to use it. Still, he’d probably like to avoid prolonged grappling exchanges with Dawson if he can. This booking has the feel of a fight that the UFC expects Dawson to win, since the company would clearly like to market him as a 155-pound contender of the future. Green likely has more yesterdays than tomorrows in the sport at this point, but he’s also too experienced and too savvy to take lightly.
UFC Fight Night prop bet odds
UFC prop bets typically focus on when and how the fight will end. For Saturday’s main event, Dawson comes in with 13 of his 20 wins coming by way of submission. In the UFC, he’s finished four of nine bouts via submission, with three decision wins, one draw, and one KO. Of Green’s 30 professional wins, he has an almost perfectly even distribution of knockouts, submissions, and decisions. While he’s only been submitted twice in his career, he has lost eight of the 20 bouts he’s been in that went the distance. While opponents have knocked him out just four times, two of those came in his last four fights.
Method of victory props
How to watch UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
- Prelims — 4 p.m. ET, ESPN+
- Main card — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+