NFL MVP Odds 2022-23

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Big things are expected from Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen this season. He’s the current favorite to win the NFL MVP award at +700. Right behind him on the odds board are several of the league’s other top QBs.

Tom Brady (+800) and Patrick Mahomes (+900) have been neck-and-neck for second place. Justin Herbert, who threw for 5,000+ yards last year, and Aaron Rodgers, the winner of the last two NFL MVPs, are next up at +1000. Joe Burrow, fresh off of a Super Bowl appearance, rounds out the top five at +1200.

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry and Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor are the top choices among non-QBs at +5000. The biggest movers to date have been Indianapolis Colts QB Matt Ryan (+10000 to +4000) and Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (+13000 to +6000).

Here’s a look at the chase for the next NFL MVP award.

NFL MVP odds: Allen, Brady, Mahomes Top Favorites

 

PlayerCurrent OddsJune 20May 6Feb. 21
Josh Allen+700+700+750
Patrick Mahomes+800+900+750
Tom Brady+800+1000+4500
Justin Herbert+1000+1000+1600
Aaron Rodgers+1000+1000+800
Joe Burrow+1200+1200+1400
Russell Wilson+1400+1400+2500
Matthew Stafford+1400+1500+1800
Dak Prescott+1200+1600+1600
Jalen Hurts+2500+1800+4000
Kyler Murray+2000+2000+2200
Derek Carr+2500+2200+5000
Lamar Jackson+2000+2500+2800
Deshaun Watson+6000+2500+3500
Matt Ryan+4000+4000+10000
Tua Tagovailoa+6000+4000+13000
Kirk Cousins+4000+5000+5000
Derrick Henry+5000+5000+2500
Cooper Kupp+7500+5000+3500
Jonathan Taylor+5000+5000+2800

Favorites to win the 2022 NFL MVP

The two players on top of the odds board have been pretty steady, but there has been plenty of jockeying for position right behind them. Here are the top three favorites for MVP so far:

Josh Allen, favorite for NFL MVP futures
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen looks to pass during the second half of an NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons in Orchard Park, N.Y., Sunday, Jan. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, +700

  • 2021 stats: 11-6, 63.3 CMP%, 4,407 YD, 36 TD, 15 INT, 92.2 RTG

Allen is one of the top young QBs in the game and leads the way for the prolific Bills. He finished last season ranked eighth in yards and seventh in TDs, while the Buffalo offense was third in the league in points per game. Now entering his fifth season, Allen is an elite QB for a team that could end up contending for the Super Bowl.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, +900

  • 2021 stats: 12-5, 66.3 CMP%, 4,839 YD, 37 TD, 13 INT, 98.5 RTG

The Chiefs have advanced to the AFC title game four years in a row, with Mahomes serving as perhaps the biggest reason why. He struggled at times a season ago, but the end result was another year in which he was among the leaders in several key categories. Kansas City should contend once again, and Mahomes is the engine that makes the offense go.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, +800

  • 2021 stats: 13-4, 67.5 CMP%, 5,316 YD, 43 TD, 12 INT, 102.1 RTG

A little over a month of retirement proved to be enough for Brady, as he will be returning to lead the way in Tampa once again. Father Time has yet to catch up to the 44-year-old. If last year’s performance is any indication, Brady will continue winning the battle for the foreseeable future. Another Super Bowl ring and an MVP to go with it are certainly possible.

Sleepers to win the 2022 NFL MVP

Beyond the top favorites, there are several other intriguing contenders a little farther down the list. If a few things break right, the following players could make some noise this NFL season:

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, +1400

  • 2021 stats: 6-8, 64.8 CMP%, 3,113 YD, 25 TD, 6 INT, 103.1 RTG

Wilson had a challenging season in Seattle, but he’s now off to greener pastures. Denver has been searching for an answer at QB for several years. Now it’s found one. The trade for Wilson makes the Broncos an instant contender. There’s a solid young cast of talent around him on offense. Wilson could be in line to deliver a memorable season.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, +1200

  • 2021 stats: 11-5, 68.8 CMP%, 4,449 YD, 37 TD, 10 INT, 104.2 RTG

Last season, the Dallas offense topped the NFL with an average of 407.0 yards and 31.2 points per game. Prescott was the top catalyst for making that happen. The Cowboys disappointed in the postseason once again, but the pieces are still in place to contend. Prescott enters this year following the best statistical season of his career.

Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, +4000

  • 2021 stats: 7-10, 67.0 CMP%, 3,968 YD, 20 TD, 12 INT, 90.4 RTG

Ryan is another QB who has changed zip codes in the aftermath of a tough season. The Falcons offense wasn’t able to achieve liftoff last year, but that was far from just Ryan’s fault. He now lands with an Indianapolis team that could be a QB away from contending. Ryan has a chance to be this year’s version of Matthew Stafford.

Dark horses to win the 2022 NFL MVP

The NFL season doesn’t always go according to script. There are plenty of talented players across the league who are capable of putting together a season for the ages. Here’s a trio of dark horse MVP contenders to keep an eye on:

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, +4000

  • 2021 stats: 8-8, 66.3 CMP%, 4,221 YD, 33 TD, 7 INT, 103.1 RTG

Since joining Minnesota in 2018, Cousins and the team have been unable to get over the hump. New head coach Kevin O’Connell, formerly the offensive coordinator of the potent Los Angeles Rams offense, is now tasked with righting the ship. Cousins has excellent weapons at his disposal and may be poised to take a leap forward under a new regime.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans, +5000

  • 2021 stats: 8 GP, 219 ATT, 937 YDS, 4.3 AVG, 10 TD

For a non-QB to win the MVP award, it’ll take a stellar season. Henry is capable of doing that. He lost time last season due to injury, but that came on the heels of rushing for 2,027 yards and 17 scores in 2020. A healthy Henry is a game-changer and a threat to score whenever he touches the ball. The potential to be the first RB to win MVP since 2012 is real.      

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams, +7500

  • 2021 stats: 17 GP, 145 REC, 1,947 YD, 13.4 AVG, 16 TD

Kupp delivered one of those seasons for the ages in 2021. He hit the trifecta last season to lead the league in receiving yards, scores and receptions. For a capper, he caught eight balls for 92 yards and two scores while on his way to winning the Super Bowl MVP. This will be his second season catching passes from Matthew Stafford, so an encore could be coming.

Last 10 winners of the NFL MVP award

YearPosition/PlayerTeam
2021QB Aaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers
2020QB Aaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers
2019QB Lamar JacksonBaltimore Ravens
2018QB Patrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
2017QB Tom Brady New England Patriots
2016QB Matt RyanAtlanta Falcons
2015QB Cam NewtonCarolina Panthers
2014QB Aaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers
2013QB Peyton ManningDenver Broncos
2012RB Adrian PetersonMinnesota Vikings

Teams with the most NFL MVP awards, 1957-present

TeamNumberLast Winner
Packers10QB Aaron Rodgers, 2021
Colts9QB Peyton Manning, 2009
49ers5QB Steve Young, 1994
Browns4QB Brian Sipe, 1980
Rams4QB Kurt Warner, 2001
Broncos3QB Peyton Manning, 2013
Patriots3QB Tom Brady, 2017
Raiders3QB Rich Gannon, 2002
Vikings3RB Adrian Peterson, 2012
Commanders3QB Joe Theismann, 1982

NFL MVP award winners by position, 1957-present

PositionNumberLast
Quarterback46Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 2021
Running Back18Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings, 2012
Defensive Tackle1Alan Page, Minnesota Vikings, 1971
Kicker1Mark Moseley, Washington, 1982
Linebacker1Lawrence Taylor, New York Giants, 1986

Popular NFL futures bets

Betting on NFL futures means wagering on season-long outcomes. This includes betting on the winner of the AFC or NFC, the Super Bowl or the MVP. Futures can remain active from the time the NFL lines come out through most or all of the season, depending on what you’re wagering on.

Futures betting requires a long-term perspective, as you don’t receive any payouts and your wager is locked up until the outcome on which you’re betting is official.

For the MVP award specifically, the market can be subjective. The award is voted on by a panel of writers, each of whom may have their own personal biases. It’s another layer to consider for betting strategy.

As an example, the vote totals of a player who is not well-regarded on a personal level by members of the media can be impacted, regardless of their accomplishments on the field. Meanwhile, a player who is considered to be a media darling can receive a voting boost in the wake of a stellar season.

FAQ

What is the official name of the NFL MVP award?

The Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player Award has been awarded annually since 1957. While there are other honors handed out at the conclusion of the season, this is the only MVP award that’s officially sanctioned by the NFL.

How is the NFL MVP award decided?

A panel of 50 sportswriters cast their votes for NFL MVP at the conclusion of the regular season. The writers make a single selection each with each vote equalling one point. The player with the most votes/points is the NFL MVP award winner.

Has there ever been a unanimous winner of NFL MVP?

Yes, this has happened twice. Tom Brady received 50 out of 50 votes while winning his second MVP award with the New England Patriots in 2010. Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens did the same in 2019.

How many players have won multiple NFL MVP awards?

Nine players are multiple-time winners of NFL MVP. Peyton Manning has won the mast all-time with five, followed by Aaron Rodgers with four. Jim Brown is among the four players who have won three, and also the only non-QB to win multiple times.

Who was the last player to win consecutive NFL MVP awards?  

Aarron Rodgers. The reigning NFL MVP also won the award in 2020. Prior to Rodgers, the last player to turn the trick was Peyton Manning in 2008-09. In the history of the award, just five players have won in consecutive years.

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