Super Bowl 58 kicks off this Sunday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas to much fanfare, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking to repeat in a matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. All eyes will be on some of the earliest Super Bowl odds action, with bets on the opening coin toss, national anthem, and other novelty props.
When the game gets started, early bets will start to cash, including wagers on the first touchdown scorer. This bet offers much longer odds than taking a player to score at any time in the contest because of the nature of the wager. Betting on which player will score the first touchdown has become increasingly popular because it’s an exciting aspect of the early action with a potentially nice payout.
Below, we take a look at the market for first touchdown scorers at top Super Bowl betting sites.
Super Bowl 58 first TD scorer odds
What touchdown favorites have scored the most this season?
Picking the first touchdown scorer requires some research. We can dive into red zone touches, target share, and goal-line roles throughout the regular season and playoffs to get a better idea of which players have a higher chance to find the end zone.
Christian McCaffrey has been a touchdown machine and tied the NFL record with 17 consecutive games finding the end zone from last season through the postseason and into this year. Isiah Pacheco is on his own streak, with a touchdown in seven consecutive games, including one in each game this postseason. Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in 11 of his last 13 postseason games, with 14 total touchdowns in that span.
Here is a list of the total touchdowns this season by the top options to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl 58:
- Christian McCaffrey, 21
- Deebo Samuel, 12
- Isiah Pacheco, 9
- Brandon Aiyuk, 7
- Rashee Rice, 7
- George Kittle, 6
- Travis Kelce, 5
- Brock Purdy, 2
What positions have scored the most?
Running backs are typically the most likely position to find the end zone, and the odds reflect that trend. This is especially true with two teams that pass on using their quarterback as a rusher in goal-line situations. Patrick Mahomes has not rushed for a touchdown all season and has gone seven straight playoff games without a rushing TD. Brock Purdy, meanwhile, rushed for two touchdowns this season.
McCaffrey has scored eight first touchdowns in San Francisco’s games this season. The 49ers are a run-first team that depends on a zone-based blocking scheme, and McCaffrey has been a machine in the red zone with a league-high 79 touches in scoring position.
Pacheco scored six first touchdowns for the Chiefs this season. The Chiefs’ offense has been hotter in the first half than the second half, and it’s scored the first touchdown in 14 of the team’s 20 games this season, including the playoffs.
Kelce has the shortest odds behind those running backs. The tight end has scored the Chiefs’ first touchdown in consecutive playoff games after a relatively quiet season where he scored two of the team’s first touchdowns, a step back after doing that five times in the 2022-23 regular season.
Deebo Samuel somewhat transcends positional criteria because of his role as a rusher. The receiver has five rushing and seven receiving touchdowns this season, including the first TD in three of San Francisco’s games.
For the Chiefs, Rashee Rice sometimes functions as an extension of the running game with quick screens and comeback routes. Rice has scored four of Kansas City’s first touchdowns this season.
In terms of pure receivers, Brandon Aiyuk has three first touchdowns this season for the Niners. The Chiefs have not found reliable receivers behind Rice and Kelce, with Marques Valdes-Scantling and backup running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire generating the shortest odds behind those players and Mahomes. Jerick McKinnon (groin), meanwhile, is questionable for the Super Bowl, and he’s scored two first touchdowns for the Chiefs this season.
Team defenses are a long shot to score the first touchdown, with the 49ers’ defense getting slightly shorter odds than the Chiefs at most books.
Additionally, backup receivers and tight ends can have a say. The Chiefs have shown a propensity for throwing to their backup tight ends when the opposition keys in on Kelce. Noah Gray and Blake Bell are available at long odds.
The Niners’ long shot scorer potentially worth considering might be fullback Kyle Juszcyk, who caught a touchdown in the 2020 Super Bowl and has two receiving TDs this season.
