Kirk Cousins Trade Odds: Kirk Cousins Signs Atlanta Falcons

BREAKING: Kirk Cousins signed with the Atlanta Falcons. After a good start to the 2023-24 season, Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles in Week 8 and missed the rest of the final year of his current contract. The Minnesota Vikings have fully guaranteed his contract in all six of his seasons with the franchise but reportedly are unwilling to continue that trend with a 35-year-old signal caller, so Cousins may seek a guaranteed deal elsewhere. 

The Vikings said in January that they intend to try to re-sign Cousins, and they remain the favorites to retain his services. However, if negotiations break down, other teams could quickly get into the mix for the veteran. Cousins might land the biggest contract of any free agent this year if he hits the open market.  

Kirk Cousins next team odds

Below were the trade odds before Cousins landed with the Atlanta Falcons:

• Minnesota Vikings: -250
• Atlanta Falcons: +330
• New England Patriots: +800
• Pittsburgh Steelers: +1000
• Las Vegas Raiders: +1000
• Denver Broncos: +1500
• San Francisco 49ers: +1800 
• Washington Commanders: +2000
• Tennessee Titans: +2000
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +3500
• Chicago Bears: +5000
• New York Giants: +5000
• Carolina Panthers: +6000
• All other teams: +7500 and above

Odds as of March 1 via DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado — not available on all NFL betting sites.

Implied probability of signing Cousins 

The implied probabilities above are from DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado’s odds. Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. All teams are in calculations, just not shown.

Teams favored to sign Kirk Cousins 

Last offseason, Cousins signed a one-year extension for $35 million with the Vikings. He threw for 2,331 yards and 18 touchdowns in his eight appearances before the Achilles tear. Cousins has publicly stated that the structure of his contract is more important than the overall salary, indicating he wants guaranteed money on the offer sheet. 

Minnesota Vikings (-250)

If the Vikings don’t re-sign Cousins, they will incur a $28.5 million hit in dead cap space. Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said the organization wants to keep Cousins, but Albert Breer reports that the biggest hang-up involves Cousins’ demand for guaranteed money.

Atlanta Falcons (+330)

The Falcons are in the mix for a new quarterback after Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke shared passing duties during an underwhelming season. Atlanta is one of the favorites to land Justin Fields in a potential trade, but the Chicago Bears might not make their dual-threat quarterback available. ESPN’s Matt Bowen listed the Falcons as the best fit for Cousins, who might have more interest in Atlanta because his wife has family there. 

New England Patriots (+800)

There is a wide gap between the Falcons and any other new team to sign Cousins. If new coach Jerod Mayo and his staff prefer a veteran quarterback over a rookie, they could move off the No. 3 overall pick in the upcoming draft and make a hard run at Cousins. As an organization, the Patriots don’t have much history of offering huge guaranteed deals to free agents. 

Las Vegas Raiders (+1000)

The Raiders gave interim coach Antonio Pierce the full job with the endorsement of his top players, and Davante Adams mentioned Cousins as one of the best quarterbacks to work with next year, based on availability. Vegas has just over $36 million in cap space and is likely in the market to upgrade at quarterback after rookie Aidan O’Connell finished with an 83.9 passer rating last season. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1000)

Despite Terry Bradshaw’s endorsement of Kenny Pickett, the Steelers are likely looking for a new quarterback. Pittsburgh has limited cap flexibility this offseason and would need to clear some hurdles to sign Cousins to a deal worth close to $90 million over two seasons. A recent report from podcast host Chad Ochocinco indicated that he expects the Steelers to push hard to acquire Russell Wilson.